Cool Tonight, Pleasant Week! Monday Afternoon Forecast Update 6pm

Good Monday afternoon to you! It’s a unique August day for sure, with low humidity and cooler temperatures. While afternoon temperatures remain mild, the low humidity and lower temperatures will be very welcome. Most spots topped out in the middle to upper 80s this afternoon under a mostly sunny sky. The surface cold front is over south Alabama this afternoon, and the front will gradually continue to push southward over the next 12 hours. Areas south and southeast of Tuscaloosa are still dealing with some cloud cover, but skies will clear out there and all across Alabama over the next 12 hours.

With dewpoints in the 50s for much of the area, temperatures tonight will drop like a rock. Expect temperatures to dip below 80 by 8pm and below 70 around 10pm. Skies will become clear across all of central and west Alabama tonight. I don’t expect any risk of rain across our coverage area, but a stray shower is possible across Marengo County through 9pm, then the entire area will go dry.

Skies will remain mostly sunny on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. A surface high just to our north will keep things calm through Friday. Afternoon highs will gradually warm into the lower 90s on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Lower humidity will keep 90 degree temperatures fairly nice. Lows will remain in the lower 60s through Friday morning. Some spots will fall into the upper 50s tonight through Wednesday night!

Clouds will gradually increase over the weekend, with a stray afternoon storm or two. Highs will remain in the lower 90s through the weekend.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Lots of Tropical Action… One System To Watch Close… Monday Morning Tropical Update – 10am

Good Monday morning to you! The tropics have become very active over the weekend and to start off this week, which makes sense due to the peak of hurricane season nearby. Tropical Storm Gordon is moving east and weakening across the northeast Atlantic. There’s a disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico that has a low chance of becoming a named storm, but wind shear and a developing ridge north of it should keep it weak and away from Alabama’s Gulf Coast. Most model data takes it into Texas or Mexico as a weak area of low pressure or weak tropical storm.

The tropical wave/low pressure we’re watching is the one east of the Lesser Antilles. A well defined surface low has developed and a tropical depression may be forming soon. Wind shear is light around and ahead of this system, so there’a a real chance it will gradually become better organized, plus, water temperatures are well into the 80s in that area. I’ve circled where the low pressure is located. The only thing keeping this system from developing rapidly is the amount of dry air north of the system. As the low develops, it will continue to ingest dry air and that should keep the deep convection from sustaining around the center. These tropical systems have been known to moisten up the air around the center, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that over the coming days. Model data continues to forecast weak shear over the next 4 to 5 days, which should allow gradual strengthening, despite the dry air near the low.

Model data below….

Now, where will this system go? There’s a ridge north of the low, and the ridge will continue to force the system west over the next 3 days. It is likely the low will move into the northeast Caribbean in 50 to 70 hours from now. If you have a trip to the Lesser Antilles, keep an eye on this system. I doubt it makes hurricane status by that point. Strengthening should be slow but gradual. Notice, most model data takes a track very close to Hispaniola in about 4 or 5 days. If the circulation hits the big islands, the center will be disrupted significantly or may die out. That being said, a track just to the south or north of Cuba and Hispaniola would be problematic.

There’s a real chance this storm could reach the Gulf of Mexico, but it’s just too early to tell. By chance it did reach Alabama’s coast, it would be a good 7 days before that would occur. I think the chance of that is very low at this point, but it will have to be watched. Confidence in a landfall point is very low due to the time it will take for that to occur. Lots of changes are possible in the projected path when you’re that far from landfall. We will keep an eye on it and forecast any changes if needed. We’ll post lots of updates on here as the system develops.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com