Scattered Storms This Weekend…Tropical Update…Beach Forecast – Friday Afternoon Forecast Update 5pm

Good Friday afternoon to you! The round of storms that moved through the area this morning really did a number on the atmosphere, keeping the severe weather threat in check today. In-fact, most areas are rain free at this point across west and central Alabama. As the atmosphere becomes a little more unstable this evening, expect a few storms to pop ahead of the cold front. The lifting mechanism (cold front) is still well northwest of Alabama, so we’ll have to wait on that feature to get closer to us to bring the risk of storms. I think the atmosphere won’t be able to destabilize enough to cause severe weather issues, but we’ll keep an eye on radar trends through tonight.

I you have plans over the weekend, keep the rain gear handy. The cold front will stall out across central Alabama, which will make for a tricky forecast. Anyone north of the front will deal with drier conditions this weekend, but anyone south of the front will have a good chance of scattered storms. Either way, don’t expect rain all weekend, but storms are possible at any point. Right now, we think the front will stall near I-20/59. This means for a mostly dry weekend for places like Jasper, Fayette and Cullman and a fairly wet weekend for areas like Demopolis, Greensboro and Linden.

A wave of low pressure will likely develop along the front and bring the risk of additional showers and storms on Monday. Most data shows a rather wet day, so take the rain gear to work or to the bus stop. School starts for many people on Monday. With a fairly high chance of rain, prepare for rain at any point on Monday. Monday’s good rain chance will include all of west and central Alabama. Temperatures will remain in the 80s through the weekend and early next week due to the extra clouds and rain at times. Again, it will not be a washout over the weekend.

Tropical Storm Helene has formed over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. That system will move into Mexico tonight or tomorrow, with no impacts on Alabama’s Gulf Coast. Tropical Storm Gordon is well out in the north Atlantic. Gordon will move into Spain sometime over the next 5 days, which is a rare event for that part of the world.

If you have beach plans to the Alabama Gulf Coast for the weekend, you’ll need the rain gear. There’s a good chance of scattered to numerous storms through the weekend and early next week to the south. This is the last weekend before school starts for many. I wish I had a better beach forecast for you! It will not rain the entire time, but storms are expected.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Tropical Storm Helene Forms In Southwest Gulf of Mexico… Tropical Update 4:30pm

Good Friday afternoon to you! We have a brand new tropical storm in the southwest Gulf of Mexico at this hour. This system is moving northwest and will move into Mexico tonight or early Saturday. Below is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM HELENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

430 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE SYSTEM IS NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HELENE WITH AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT…ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS COULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY TOPOGRAPHY AND DECAYING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER…WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER LOCATION. THAT BEING SAID…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL…STEADY DECAY IS EXPECTED TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/06. HELENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF THROUGH DISSIPATION.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM HELENE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL…WHICH WILL CONTINUE EVEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Nice Rain Event Early This Morning…More Storms This Eve/Tonight…Weekend Forecast Update – Friday Update 1pm

Good Friday early afternoon to you! As of 1pm, the radar is quiet across our area. The morning round of intense thunderstorms has worked over the atmosphere across much of central and west Alabama, so it’s going to take a while before more storms can develop. Enjoy the break in the rain now because more storms are likely this evening and tonight. Sure, it won’t rain non-stop, but many spots will get a soaking. The morning round of rain dumped a large amout of rain across much of the area. I got 0.85″ at my house in Northport. Above is the storm total map, which shows what fell this morning. The higher rain totals were in west Alabama, and parts of east Alabama didn’t get a drop. The light shade of green shows where 1 inch of rain fell this morning.

 

The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk of severe weather across much of the south, with an interesting hole in the slight risk over parts of central Alabama. This is likely due to a slightly stable atmosphere across our area. The sun is coming out across much of the area now, which is causing the surface to heat up. As a cold front moves in from the northwest, lift ahead of the front will kick off more showers and storms. The best chance of storms across central and west Alabama will happen after 3pm and last through tonight. While there is a chance of rain all night, it will not rain all night. Storms will produce intense lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds.

The best chance of rain will move into south Alabama on Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances will increase as you move south of I-20 over the weekend, so places like Linden, Demopolis and Marion stand a good chance of scattered storms through the weekend. Areas north of I-20 will stay mostly dry on Saturday and Sunday. There is a hint of a disturbance moving over our area on Monday, so I may have to bump up rain chances for Monday. Stay tuned for updates…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Big Storms Early This Friday Morning… Friday Update 5am

Good Friday morning to you! The complex of storms we were watching over Tennessee late lastnight made it into parts of north and central Alabama; in-fact, strong storms have just reached the Tuscaloosa area as of 5am. This activity will continue south through the early morning hours, but the storms will gradually weaken as the complex moves south this morning. At this point, there isn’t any severe thunderstorm warnings with the storms, but there is a flash flood warning for Lamar County in northwest Alabama.

The band of intense storms, as of 5am, stretch in a line from southern Pickens County to central Tuscaloosa County to northern Shelby County. The line itself it producing lots of lightning, gusty winds and heavy rain. Look for this mess to move south over the next few hours and could reach the HWY 80 area sometime around 7 to 8am. There’s a nice batch of light to moderate rain behind the intense leading edge. Look for rain to continue behind the line across north and central Alabama for a few hours, then gradually come to an end. Additional thunderstorms are expected this afternoon ahead of the cold front, some could become strong to severe.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com