Big Storms Continue Tonight…Nice Weekend! Friday Evening Forecast Discussion – 10pm

Good Friday evening to you! Much of the area has picked up some big rain totals today, as a cold front moves into the state from the northwest. As of 10pm tonight, numerous thunderstorms are moving across the area, but this activity will come to an end from northwest to southeast through the night. If a storm moves over you tonight, expect heavy rain, gusty winds and intense lightning. The threat of severe weather is low tonight.

The cold front will be southeast of the area by tomorrow morning. Expect lower humidty and a refreshing north wind through the day. Skies will become sunny on Saturday, with a high in the upper 80s. There will be no heat index issues tomorrow or Sunday. Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s by Sunday morning. At this point, I see no risk of rain through the weekend. Highs will likely reach 90 on Sunday, but dry air will make 90 feel ok. Sunday night will be another nice night, with lows in the middle 60s.

Skies will become partly cloudy on Monday and Tuesday. An upper air disturbance will move into the area from the northwest and bring the risk of scattered showers and storms. Most spots stay dry on Monday, but higher rain chances can be expected on Tuesday. There’s some hint of drier air taking over on Wednesday and Thursday, so I’ve dropped the rain chances a bit. Highs will remain in the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

The tropics are very active this evening. We’re watching a tropical depression and several areas of low pressure. At this point, none of these features are close to the US, but we’ll keep an eye each of these systems in the days ahead.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Scattered Likely Through 10pm, Then Dry… Friday Radar Update 6:30pm

As of 6:20pm Friday, scattered strong storms continue to move east southeast across our area. Many spots are getting a good soaking rain, but not everyone will get rain. These storms are moving at 20 to 30 mph to the east southeast. Most of the activity is in west Alabama, but storms will increase in east Alabama over the next couple of hours. The chance of rain in one spot continues at 60%. While we had one severe thunderstorm earlier, the risk of severe weather is low.

Don’t be shocked if another severe thunderstorm warning is issued, but the chance if low. Storms will produce gusty winds, intense lightning and heavy rain through 10pm. Rain chances will end after 10pm from northwest to southeast. Look for nice weather for the weekend plans, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Low humidity will make for a refreshing weekend.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Severe Thunderstorm Warning For Tuscaloosa and Bibb County Until 6:15pm Friday

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…NORTHERN BIBB COUNTY IN ALABAMA…EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 536 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COALING… OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOLT…AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…BROOKWOOD…BEVILLE LOCK AND DAM…VANCE…ABERNANT…WOODSTOCK
JUNCTION…WEST BLOCTON…TANNEHILL IRONWORKS STATE PARK AND LAKE VIEW.

THIS INCLUDES…INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 79 THROUGH 100…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Strong Storms in Parts of The Area… 5:15 PM Friday Update

As of 5:15pm Friday, strong storms are moving across parts of our area. At this point, the main batch of storms is over Hale, Tuscaloosa, Perry and Bibb County. This batch of strong storms is moving east southeast, and will likely impact the Marion and Centreville area within the next hour. Expect gusty winds, heavy rain and intense lightning under any storm that develops.

Other storms are moving into northwest Alabama and will continue southeast. Many spots will get a good soaking today, but some spots will miss out on the rain. Rain chances will end after 10pm tonight from northwest to southeast. Dry air takes over just in time for the weekend.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Storms Moving In…Good Chance of Rain Through 10pm… Friday Update 4pm

Good Friday afternoon to you! As of 4pm, scattered to numerous thunderstorms were developing across north and west Alabama. These storms are moving southeast at 20 to 30mph and are strong in spots. The risk of severe weather is low this evening, but a severe thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. Storms will produce heavy rain, strong winds and intense lightning. Keep in mind lightning safety if outdoors today.

Storms are likely this evening and early tonight, as a cold front moves in from the northwest. Rain chances stand at 60%, so many spots will get a good soaking. Not everyone will get rain this evening, and it will not rain for a long duration of time. Rain may last an hour or less at your house. Storms will start to move out of the area after 10pm.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Eyes on the Tropics, Two Systems to Watch – Friday 2:15 a.m.

Another night up checking in late on the tropics has turned up more developments. Ernesto is downgraded to a Tropical Depression, Tropical Depression 7 continues to make westward progress toward the Caribbean and Invest 93 has formed just off the coast of Africa. We have a lot to cover this morning but it’s definitely worth your time. We’ll go from newest to oldest.
Invest 93 is a tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure area located over the eastern Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and Africa. The associated shower activity is showing signs of organization this morning and conditions appear to be conducive for this system to develop into a tropical depression as it moves west to west-northwestward at around 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. As I take a look at the latest models this system appears to be headed north of the Caribbean islands and toward the east coast of Florida. Of course, I can’t sit here and say that it will impact Florida but it is headed in that general direction. The map to the right is the latest set of model forecast tracks for Invest 93.

 

As with most tropical systems this time of year it is likely that Invest 93 will eventually make a right turn and could possibly stay in the open Atlantic. It is all dependent on where the high pressure develops and weakens across the Atlantic as the system approaches. As we saw with Ernesto, the high pressure stayed fairly well intact and Ernesto, being a tropical low pressure system, stayed relatively weak and therefore followed the path of least resistance which took it into Mexico. There is still a lot of time between now and when 93 could possibly impact the U.S. The map to the left is the latest models forecasting the potential strength of 93.


All but one current models being calculated have 93 becoming a tropical storm within 24 hours and a category 1 hurricane within 96 hours. We will have to watch this system very closely because it has the potential to become a large hurricane. So, we’ve covered Invest 93, now on to Tropical Depression 7 which is moving faster and faster toward the Caribbean. The latest update that came out at 10 pm CDT has maximum sustained winds at 35 mph which is only 4 mph less than a Tropical Storm, so it is very possible that 7 could become Tropical Storm Gordon later today. The nest update from the NHC will be issued at 4am. The official forecast path has not been updated since the latest models runs which are now trending toward 7 making a right turn in the next 2-3 days. We will see what the forecasters at the NHC have to say when the next forecast is issued in a couple of hours.


What we do anticipate is Tropical Depression 7 becoming Tropical Storm Gordon within the next 12 to 24 hours. The general trend is toward 7 strengthening to a tropical storm sometime between now and noon CDT. The National Hurricane Center is scheduled to issue advisories at 4am and 10am so it is likely that we won’t see a tropical storm named before that 10am advisory. Regardless of the timing of that, forecast models are predicting that 7 will become a hurricane in its life cycle. I will go ahead and say that this is very dependent on the track of 7. If the models on the fringe of the cone of uncertainty are more right then 7 will have a better chance of becoming a category 1 hurricane or more. If the middle track models are correct it will be very hard for 7 to strengthen too much because these models have it going over the island of Hispanola, which is extremely mountainous and that would likely tear the storm apart or at least weaken it greatly. The other models show 7 staying over water for the most part. The official intensity forecast shows the system taking 24 hours to become a tropical storm and then another 4 days to become a hurricane. That forecast shows 7 reaching hurricane strength in the central Caribbean. As of this hour that is the extreme end of the forecast range and we can only speculate as to where 7 will be headed at that time. Needless to say, we are keeping both eyes on the tropics for potential impact here in Alabama.

We’ve talked about the two systems that still have potential to affect us here, I also want to mention now Tropical Depression Ernesto. An advisory was issued at 1am CDT downgrading Ernesto to a depression with 35 mph winds. The official forecast has Ernesto weakening to a tropical low sometime after 7am CDT, in fact they have not listed a forecast track past that hour. The next two names on the list are Gordon and Helene and it is very possible that we could see those storms form some time today. We’ll definitely be watching and updating you right here on the weather blog and of course Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott will have the latest tonight on WVUA News at 4, 5, 6, & 10. Have a great morning!

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather