Better Rain Chances…Nice Weekend…Active Tropics – Wednesday Afternoon Forecast 4:45pm Update

Good Wednesday afternoon to you! Scattered storms have developed in spots today, but many of you will not get rain at your house. The risk of isolated afternoon storms will die out after sunset. Temperatures will fall into the upper 80s around 7pm and upper 70s at 10pm tonight. Skies will become mostly clear across our area tonight.

Better rain chance will arrive on Thursday and Friday as a cold front and upper air trough arrives. It’s very rare to get a true cold front into the deep south in August, but the developing upper air trough will send the front and slightly cooler temperatures well into central and west Alabama. We can expect a good chance of scattered to numerous thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday, but the best chance of storms will occur on Friday. Many spots will get a good soaking between Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will peak during the afternoon hours, as instability increases across our area. It will not rain all day, but you will need the rain gear due to the chance of rain at any point. Expect periods of sun and clouds both Thursday and Friday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s due to the extra clouds and scattered storms.

The front will push through our state sometime Friday evening or Friday night, and cooler temperatures will take over for your weekend plans. While I say cooler temperatures, don’t expect chilly weather… It’s still August, so a cold front could only bring a slight drop in the heat. Highs will remain in the upper 80s for many spots on Saturday and Sunday, with a few towns reaching the 90 degree mark. Skies will remain sunny to mostly sunny on Saturday and Sunday. Humidity will be much lower through the weekend, which will feel great! Overnight lows will fall into the lower or middle 60s on Sunday and Monday morning. A few of the cooler spots like Hamilton, Cullman or Gadsden may reach the upper 50s.

Humidity will gradually increase again early next week, so look for the risk of isolated afternoon storms on Monday and Tuesday. Highs will return into the lower to middle 90s under a partly cloudy sky.

The tropics have got rather active over the past week or so. Tropical Storm Ernesto has weakened over the past 12 hours due to the interaction of land. The system could re-strengthen into a hurricane before moving into Mexico tomorrow night. Ernesto will spend about 24 hours over the Bay of Campeche. There are two other areas we’re watching this afternoon in the central Atlantic. The area circled in yellow doesn’t appear to have a chance of re-developing. The orange circled area is worth watching close due to its position over the warmer waters and slightly better environment. Forecast data takes that feature off to the west over the next 5 days. We’ve got lots of time to watch it over the days ahead. I’ll update you as more data comes in. Another system worth watching is a strong area of low pressure in western Africa. There’s a real chance the low could rapidly develop into a hurricane as it moves into the Atlantic late this week and into the weekend. Fortunately, we’ve got lots of time to watch that system as well.  

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Advertisements

Few Scattered Storms Today…Better Rain Chances on Thur and Fri… Wednesday Update 12:30pm

Good Wednesday midday to you! A few scattered storms are developing across parts of central and west Alabama. These cells are moving very slow to the southeast, but many spots will remain rain free. If you see a storm in your area, expect heavy rain and intense lightning for a short period of time. Many spots will not get a drop today, but if you get rain, it may last 20 minutes and then end. The chance of rain today is at 30%.

Higher rain chances will arrive on Thursday and Friday. While it won’t rain all day on Thursday or Friday, expect many towns to get a good soaking rain. There could be a strong to severe storm out there, but I don’t expect any big severe weather issues at this point. A cold front will move through our state Friday evening, which will bring lift to kick off showers and storms. Rain is possible at any time day or night on Thursday and Friday, but the best chance of rain will occur during the afternoon hours. Drier air will take over in time for the weekend.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Weather Update – Wednesday 2 a.m.

We are definitely in the midst of hurricane season. There are currently three system that we are keeping our eyes on: Hurricane Ernesto, the remnants of Tropical Storm Florence and now Invest 92.

Invest 92 is a surface low pressure system associated with a tropical wave. It is currently located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for gradual development over the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

The model forecasts are already coming in and all are predicting that Invest 92 will become Tropical Storm Gordon within the next 48 hours. Below is the model forecasts for the next 132 hours or 5.5 days. Note one model does show Invest 92 becoming a hurricane within the next 5 days.

Another big element that is forecast for tropical systems is the possible track that the system would take. Typically this time of year tropical systems tend to follow the same general track. They form off the coast of Africa and follow a westward track into the Caribbean and then will usually make some degree turn to the north. The systems in August, September, and October are typically the ones that hit the gulf coast. With all of that being said, this system is still in the open Atlantic with more than a week before it will even within range of the U.S. Below is the forecast model tracks of Invest 92. What we will be watching for in the coming days is where the system makes it’s northwestward turn. If it stays in a westward motion for a longer period of time, we may see it move into the Gulf of Mexico. Right now there is still a very wide cone of uncertainty.

We will of course keep a very close eye on this system and any others that may develop. Officially we are still ahead of schedule on when storms typically form during the season, so we could have a long way to go before the hurricane season ends in November. Continue to check back here and on WVUA News for the latest on the tropics.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather