Scattered Storms Ahead…Weekend Forecast…Tropical Update – Monday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 5:20pm

Good Monday afternoon to you! A stationary front over north Alabama is providing enough lift to spark off scattered storms today. Some spots got a nice downpour, while other spots didn’t get a drop of rain. In-fact, we had some flash flooding issues over Lamar County this morning, where HWY 278 was closed due to water crossing the road. This hit or miss activity will remain possible through the rest of the week.

Scattered storms will gradually die down tonight as the atmosphere stabilizes around and after sunset. On average, temperatures will fall into the lower 80s by 8pm and upper 70s at 10pm under a partly cloudy sky. The risk of rain is very low after sunset. While it will be mostly dry tonight, conditions will feel very muggy. Our Tuesday forecast is looking hot and humid, with the risk of a few scattered storms. Rain chances stand at 30% on Tuesday, which means many spots will remain rain free.  The stationary front washes out over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, so the risk of rain won’t be all that high. Without a good lifting mechanism in our area, don’t expect a high chance of rain. Highs will reach the lower to middle 90s on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

A trough will sharpen up across the eastern US on Friday, which will help to enhance rain chances on Friday. Lift ahead of a cold front should kick off additional showers and storms across our area. While I still have a 30% chance of rain on Friday, I may have to bump up rain chances as confidence in this system increases. A cold front will push through our area Friday night, and drier air will take over the weekend. The risk of a passing shower is early Saturday morning for our southeastern counties. I’ve got upper 60s for highs Sunday morning, but I may have to bump overnight temperatures in the middle 60s. Since some lower dewpoints are moving into the state, which could allow temperatures to drop lower than forecasted Sunday morning. Skies will also become mostly sunny over the weekend.

The beach forecast is looking very nice over the next 5 days, with a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures along the Alabama Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday through Saturday. The risk of scattered storms is possible along the coast, but there will be no issues with Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Speaking of Tropical Storm Ernesto… That system was looking very well organized this morning, but the system has lost lots of thunderstorm activity over the past few hours. The system looks to be going through a weakening faze for now. The National Hurricane Center expects Ernesto to develop into a hurricane before moving into Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. This system is not expected to impact the US mainland… We’ll be watching other storms close over the next few months. Remember, the peak of Hurricane Season doesn’t occur until mid September, and we’ve had issues with Hurricanes well into October.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

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Scattered Storms Continue in Parts of West Alabama…Radar Update/Forecast Thoughts… 2:20pm Monday

Good Monday afternoon! Here’s a look at our local radar at 2:20pm. Much of central Alabama is really missing out on the rain at this point, but a few scattered storms are possible along and east of I-65. The best coverage and risk of rain is happening in west Alabama at this hour. Most of the thunderstorm activity is along I-20/59 in parts of Greene and Sumter County. These showers and storms are moving south at 20 mph. Look for intense lightning and heavy rain if you get under one of these cells, but the threat of severe weather looks very low. The storms will cross HWY 80 between now and 4pm and then continue south.

Some spots won’t get a drop today, especially across central Alabama. The risk of rain is looking fairly low over the next few days, with storm coverage around 30% on Tuesday through Friday. The best chance of scattered storms will happen between lunch and 8pm Tuesday through Friday. Expect a partly cloudy sky, with highs in the lower 90s.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Storm Ernesto Is Stronger…May Become A Hurricane Soon – Monday Morning Update 10:30pm

Good Monday morning to you! Ernesto is getting stronger this morning, and will likely become a hurricane soon. Most model data takes this system into Belize on Wednesday, then into Mexico. Unless something wild changes, I don’t see this system impacting the US Gulf Coast. We’ll keep an eye on it. Below is the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION.  IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND…NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION… THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE…AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF MODEL.

WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER…THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  ALTHOUGH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED…THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Scattered Storms Today… Monday Morning Forecast Update 10:20am

Good Monday morning to you! After a hot weekend with a few storms, rain chances will increase today. The lack of organized rain this weekend was in response to a lack of a lifting mechanism. This was great news because of the outdoor events happening over the weekend. I got a heavy downpour at my house in Northport on Saturday and Sunday but only picked up 0.25″ out of both storms. While it poured in spots, it didn’t last all that long. Many spots didn’t get a drop over the weekend. If you haven’t seen rain yet, there’s a good chance today. In-fact, a batch of showers and storms are moving from northwest to southeast across northwest Alabama this morning. Storm coverage will increase this afternoon, as heating adds to instability.

A weak cold front is moving into northwest Alabama now, and the front will provide lift across our area. While we were lacking any lift here over the weekend, that looks to change today. Scattered showers and storms will bring a nice downpour in may spots today, with the risk of rain at 50% at your house. While some spots miss out on the rain, I expect many areas to get a soaking at some point today. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible for much of the week, but activity will become a little more scattered.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com