Watching Ernesto Close! Tropical Update – 9:45pm Thursday

Good Thursday evening to you! We are watching Tropical Storm Ernesto close this evening, as new model data comes in and the system gets better organized. Model data is split right now, with some data turning Ernesto north into the central Gulf next week, while other data takes Ernesto into Mexico next week. If Ernesto makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, I’m very concerned we’ll have a major hurricane heading for land. The environment is forecast to become nearly perfect for developemnt on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, which would lead to rapid development. There are still lots of questions on the ridge/trough position and there’s no way to know where it is going to end up just yet. If you have beach plans next week, it would be a good idea to watch the forecast close! Again, we just don’t know where Ernesto is going yet… As more data comes in, confidence will increase. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THESE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED OR DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE UW CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/19 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR DATA AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. BY DAYS 4 AND 5…A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS TAKING ERNESTO INTO CENTRAL AMERICA…WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE TO WESTERN CUBA BY 120 HOURS. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK… MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL POSITION…AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL…TVCN…WHICH HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE CROSS-TRACK VARIATION OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.

THE RATHER FAST FORWARD SPEED COMBINED WITH SOME MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. AFTER THAT…HOWEVER…THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER SSTS…INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE…AND DECREASING SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT…IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK…  MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY MODELS… WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER… THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Scattered Storms Continue…Beach Forecast…Tropical Update – Thursday Afternoon Forecast Update 5:30pm

Good Thursday afternoon to you! We’ve had another active day of scattered to numerous showers and storms across our state, but not everyone got rain today. The areas that picked up thunderstorms dealt with very heavy rain and intense lightning. There were a couple of areas of flash flooding issues, especially over Sumter County, where rain totals approached 5 to 8 inches! If you didn’t get rain at your house, the risk is fairly high of rain each day through the weekend and early next week. Look for a 50% coverage of showers and storms through Sunday. It will not rain all day each day, but some heavy thunderstorms are possible at any point through the weekend. Keep the rain gear handy incase some rain moves over your area. If you have an outdoor event planned the rest of the week or this weekend, keep in mind lightning safety. Lightning is very dangerous, especially during the summer months, when the lightning frequency is higher.

Temperatures this evening are all over the board across Alabama. Rain cooled temperatures in many spots, but areas that didn’t get rain are much warmer. On average, temperatures will fall into the lower 80s by 10pm and middle to lower 70s late tonight. Again, some spots are already cooler than that due to rain today. A few storms are possible tonight and early Friday. We’ll be watching for a small scale disturbance to move in early tomorrow morning. That could bring an increased risk of showers and storms to Alabama. Keep it here for updates on that.

Scattered showers and storms are possible through the weekend. We’re stuck between a ridge and trough, with a flow out of the northwest. This is a favorable setup for storms in our area. Again, this is not an all day type of rain, but storms are certainly possible. Isolated severe storms and isolated flash flooding issues are possible as well. Highs will remain in the lower 90s through early next week, with lows in the lower 70s.

If you have a trip planned to the coast over the next few days, there’s a risk of scattered storms at any point. Today through Monday will feature a partly cloudy sky, with a storm or two at any point. Storms won’t last that long along the coast over the next few days, but keep in mind lightening safety. If a storm moves you way, go indoors and let it pass by. Highs between Gulf Shores and Destin will approach the lower 90s, with lows in the middle 70s.

We are watching newly formed Tropical Storm Ernesto. That system has several days to watch, but if you have a beach trip planned next week, keep a close eye on this system. Data is still all over the board on the strength and landfall position, so we’ll continue to fine tune the forecast.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Flash Flood Warning For Marion and Winston Co Until 7:30pm Thursday – 4:40pm Update

 

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
  SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 439 PM CDT…EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED SLOW MOVING  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MARION AND WESTERN WINSTON COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST HOUR…AN ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…LYNN…WINFIELD…ASHBANK…BRILLIANT…GLEN ALLEN…GU-WIN…GUIN…LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE AND NAUVOO.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED THAT ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME IMPASSIBLE IN THE CITY OF BRILLIANT DUE TO FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms! Tropical Update 4pm Thursday

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED…AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/19.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD…SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS…BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF FORECAST TRACK.  

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Marion County Until 4:30pm Thursday

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
348 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 349 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60  MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRILLIANT…OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINFIELD…AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES… US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 26 THROUGH 34…

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME DAMAGE…ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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Tropical Depression # 5 Update – 2:45pm Thursday

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT…SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING.  NOAA BUOY 41040…TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER…REPORTED 31 KT WINDS.  THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE CYCLONE…SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD SHOWED A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY JET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION…AND THIS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SWIFT 17 KT.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE…A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED.  THIS IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

11:45am Thursday Radar Check/Forecast Update

Good Thursday Midday to you! Scattered showers and storms continue across parts of southwest Alabama, but much of central Alabama remains rain free. Big storms are still going on over Sumter County, where flash flooding issues are happening. There’s a flash flood warning for Sumter County until 1pm. Rain totals have reached 5 inches over parts of Sumter County, near Livingston. The storms over southwest Alabama will gradually calm down a bit over the next couple of hours.  Other storms have formed over east and south Tuscaloosa County and Bibb County as of 11:45am. Look for the coverage of scattered storms to increase across the rest of central Alabama as we move into the afternoon hours.

While parts of southwest Alabama have dealt with heavy rain for much of the morning, rain will not continue in any one spot all day. Storms will come and go through parts of our area through sunset this evening. The risk of rain is at 40% today for areas that haven’t got rain yet. These storms are producing lots of cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds and very heavy rain. Some spots will not get a drop of rain today, but if you don’t see rain today, you stand a good chance of getting rain between now and the weekend. At any point, a storm could reach severe limits today and over the next few days. The risk of severe weather will be isolated. Damaging winds will be the main concern.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com