Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 7:45 p.m.

For tonight there is a slight chance of some light rain for the northern half of our area after midnight.  This will be due to the southern progression of a convergence zone and some isentropic lift.  Clouds can be expected and just enough lift should be present to spit out some of that light rain.

Sunday should be the culmination of this convergence zone as it continues pushing southward over the next 18-24 hours.  This will spell those low-end rain chances for our southern counties Sunday afternoon.  The northern extent of this convection will depend on how far south this zone makes it tonight and tomorrow morning.  Best chances will probably be south of Interstate 20 with the same likelihood of severe potential as today.

Models have been very consistent over the last few days showing the eventual pattern this week.  This will consist of a fairly well amplified trough over the eastern third of the country and a ridge settling over the plains.  Centered over northern Texas and the panhandle of Oklahoma, this means the gulf coast states, specifically Alabama, will be in the middle of northwest flow aloft.  This means that we are in for a tricky forecast over the next few days beginning Sunday night.  Storm system development over the mid-Mississippi Valley will be possible each day and, in turn, we could see each of these propagate as far south as the Birmingham area. Because of this we are leaving a chance of rain in the forecast for most of the week ahead.

No real change in regards to the temperature forecast with Monday being the warmest and some slight moderation under the northwest flow.  By next weekend, it looks as though the trough over the east will begin to deamplify and though the ridge to our west may not make it this far east, we could settle into a zonal pattern.  This would spell another warm up and temperatures back into the upper 90s.

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Daniel Sparkman
WVUA Weather