Nice Through Friday…Wet Weather Mess For The Weekend! Thursday Evening Forecast Discussion – 6:30 PM
May 10, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Thursday evening to you! It has been a nice spring day, with low humidity and average temperatures. With ample sunshine and low dewpoint temperatures, we’re catching a break from the summer-like heat we’ve had lately. Many spots stayed in the upper 70s this afternoon, but Tuscaloosa reached the 80 degree mark. Dewpoints are still in the 40s, so look for a quick drop in temperatures after sunset. While I don’t expect anything cold, lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s will feel pretty cool. Friday will continue to be a nice day, as highs reach the lower 80s. We can expect lots of sun on Friday, but moisture levels will start to creep upwards late in the day. Higher moisture values will really reach our area on Saturday and Sunday, as a storm system reaches Alabama.
An upper level low over southwest Texas is producing heavy rain, flooding issues, tornadoes and gusty winds this evening. While the upper level low is moving our way, it will be weakening a bit as it reaches Alabama on Saturday and Sunday. At this point, the risk of severe weather around here looks pretty low, but keep an eye on any sudden forecasting changes over the next couple of days. Clouds and rain will spread in from the west on Saturday. We can expect a dry start to our Saturday, but rain chances will increase quickly by the midday or early afternoon hours. If you have plans outdoors on Saturday, you may have a chance go get events in early in the day, but all bets are off after lunch. Rain chances will remain high on Sunday, where locally heavy rain will fall at times.
The upper level low will weaken as it moves into Alabama; in-fact, the upper level low will open up into a shortwave trough. The trough will hang around for a few days, so the chance of rain will stick around for a few days as well. Expect a good coverage of rain and storms on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Rain totals could approach 4 to 6 inches between Saturday afternoon and Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs will remain in the middle to upper 70s on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Model data is having a tough time on a secondary upper air disturbance for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Some data brings that system into central Alabama by mid week, which would bring additional showers and storms to our area. I’ll continue to update your mid week forecast as we get closer and new model data comes in.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist