Warm Temps…Severe Weather…Cooler Weekend. Monday Forecast Update – 5:50 PM

Good Monday evening! Be sure to scroll down for my severe weather post. There’s a chance of severe weather late Wednesday and Late Friday. Both systems will bring the risk of damaging winds and hail, but Friday’s event is looking more likely to produce the threat of tornadoes locally.

Today has been very nice, with a mix of sun and clouds and warm weather. Highs reached the lower 70s across much of the state. The only acceptation was along the gulf coast. Temperatures were cooler there due to thick clouds and light rain. Showers are spread north this evening and will move into central Alabama late tonight. While it won’t rain all night or all day on Tuesday, we could see a passing shower at about any time. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep the umbrella handy through Saturday morning.

As moisture increases from the south, we’ll notice the muggy feeling outside by tomorrow morning. Skies are expected to remain partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend. Our first storm system will affect our area Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. A weakening cold front will move into the area from the northwest after midnight. A weakening squall line will move through our state after sunset, and fizzle out near the HWY 80 corridor by daybreak Thursday morning. As the front becomes parallel to the upper air winds, the front will stall. This will happen somewhere between I-20/59 and HWY 80 Thursday morning. Instability will be high enough to cause a minor threat of severe weather for the northern half of the state late Wednesday, but the chance of severe weather will decrease after midnight. Highs will top out in the upper 70s on Wednesday.

Thursday will remain very warm, with highs in the 70s. Since the cold front will have become stationary across central Alabama by that point, I don’t expect our area to receive that much sunshine. A few showers will also become possible at any time on Thursday.

A much stronger storm system will impact our area late Friday evening through Saturday morning. Instability and wind shear looks to be much higher, so we have the concern for tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. Since this is several days out, we’ll have to leave it at that. I’ll be much more specific on Tuesday and Wednesday as additional model data comes in. Remain severe weather alert Wednesday night and Friday night.  

Temperatures may reach 80 degrees on Friday, if parts of the area see a little sun. The cold front will usher in some chilly weather in time for the weekend, with highs in the lower 60s or upper 50s. Lows will drop into the 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. As a surface high slides into the area, we’ll notice ample sun late Saturday and on Sunday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

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Two Rounds of Severe Storms This Week… Monday Update 4:30 PM

Good Monday afternoon to you! It’s been a very nice day to be outdoors, with partly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Many spots have reached the lower 70s this afternoon, which is about 10 degrees above the normal for late February. We’re keeping an eye on two severe weather possibilities over the next 5 days. The first event is moving in on Wednesday and a second event coming on Friday. Both events have a chance to produce severe weather across Alabama, but the storm system approaching on Wednesday looks pretty minor at this point. Above is the day 3 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. They have much of north Alabama under a slight risk of severe storms. I’ve labeled Tuscaloosa on the map to give you a reference point.

Above is one of the many models we often look at when forecasting severe weather. This is the GFS valid for 9pm Wednesday night. The surface low is at 1000mb and is located well to the north of Alabama. With weak upper air support, the cold front will likely stall across central Alabama Wednesday night. Since instability is rather high, there could be some severe storms along and north of I-20/59. There won’t be much veering of winds with height, so I don’t expect any big issues with tornadoes. The primary concern will come in the form of damaging strait line winds. Stay severe weather alert Wednesday evening through Wednesday night incase a storm or two gets out of hand in your area. The best time frame of severe weather looks to arrive after 5pm Wednesday and last through 3am Thursday morning.

Our next round of severe storms will arrive Friday evening and Friday night. The map above is the 12z GFS, valid for midnight Friday night. The surface low is in the same position as Wednesday’s system, but it’s much stronger. While a surface low that far north isn’t very favorable for severe weather, there are a few other parameters coming together for a risk. Model data is much higher on instability levels for Friday evening and Friday night. As a cold front moves into central Alabama, we will likely notice a squall line develop and push through our state. Shear values also look pretty high, so storms may also rotate.

—->5:20pm update: I’ve posted the 12z GFS on here, but the 18z just came out. The new model run seems a little more aggressive with some of the parameters. We really need to watch Friday close! Model data could change, but confidence is increasing…

Now is a time to go through your severe weather safety plans. If you don’t have a NOAA Weather Radio, buy one at your local Publix, Walmart, Radio Shack and Walgreens. They cost around 20 dollars, but it’s worth every penny!

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com