Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8:30 p.m.

The next system will move through here Monday but should hold off for much of the daylight hours. During the day the surface high will weaken and begin to push to the east. This will allow for moisture from the Gulf to move into parts of Alabama. That along with an upper level shortwave will make for an interesting turn of events for late Monday into Tuesday. By late Monday afternoon mid level moisture should begin to override but the lower levels will be so dry and with much to overcome. Rain will find it tough to make it to the ground before 6pm anywhere in the area. We will keep a slight chance for showers in case some rain does make it into the evening hours. Initially from west to east, lower levels are very dry so when rain starts. Look for the possibility of some evaporative cooling effects to help cool the overall atmosphere. The southern 3/4 to 2/3 of the area should stay all rain the whole event. As for the northern parts, precipitation should start as rain then as the atmosphere cools some snow should get mixed in but most likely melt as it gets toward the ground as it nears the ground. So unless the precipitation rate gets too fast where the melting cannot keep up then we should have no accumulations. As we move through the night around midnight the overall layer cools a tad but we start getting a warm nose of air aloft mix in from the west. So we have a very small window for snow. In our early morning time frame the warm nose gets into the east and begins to change over the precipitation to all rain well before sunrise. What does this mean to us? We could see snow across the north falling during the late night hours. We should not have much accumulation except on elevated surfaces and the morning commute should not be impacted as precipitation is all rain by sunrise area wide, with rain ending for much of the area during the morning Tuesday.

After this wave moves out on Tuesday, we will then have a break Tuesday into much of Wednesday before our next front approaches. During this time milder conditions should move back into the area ahead of the cold front with warm front expected to move across the state.

Daniel Sparkman
WVUA Weather

Wintry Mix Likely Late Monday… Sunday Update 3pm

Good Sunday afternoon to you! A fast moving storm system will bring some intersting weather to Alabama late Monday evening and Monday night. The good news is that we don’t expect any issues on the roads, due to the warm road temperatures. Above is a map of what form of precipitation will fall in your area. In a line from Giger to Greensboro to Clanton and points south will see mainly rain. There could be a little sleet to start the precipitation Monday evening, but the precipitation will quickly change to rain. Between the pink line and purple line, expect all sleet to change to all rain after midnight Monday night. North of the Purple line, you can expect a mix of snow and sleet through midnight Monday night, becoming all rain after 3am.

Things get a little more intersting north of the white line. There’s a chance of all snow for a couple of hours Monday evening and early Monday night. The grassy areas could get a dusting to a half inch north and east of Jasper. Snow will then change to sleet and all rain after 3am Monday morning.

Don’t expect any major issues, as this event will quickly change to all rain. This isn’t an event that should cause schools to close or for you to buy milk and bread. Warm air advection will change precipitation over to all rain across all of central and north Alabama during the overnight hours. Rain showers will continue through Tuesday morning, as temperatures continue to warm a bit. Since the atmosphere is very dry, the precip will evaporate before reaching the surface at first Monday afternoon. This will cause the air to cool due to process of evaporative cooling. That’s the main reason the event will start off as a wintry mix.

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WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott