Warm Weather and Rain Ahead… Tuesday Forecast Update 4:49 PM


Good Tuesday afternoon to you! Much of the day has featured cloudy skies, but a break in the clouds this afternoon has helped temperatures warm rapidly. Many locations are in the 70s, under a mostly sunny sky. There are more clouds moving into the area now, and a few showers will become possible later tonight. A warm, moist south flow has developed and is allowing the air to rise across the southeast. Warm and moist air advection is a lifting mechanism, so that has allowed more clouds and showers to develop across the south. Also, a weak shortwave trough will move into the area tomorrow, which will aid in rising motion in the atmosphere. We can expect a few showers tonight, but more organized rain will arrive on Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front and upper air shortwave.

Temperatures will remain mild through this week and much of the weekend. With more clouds and some rain on Wednesday, expect temperatures to stay below the 70 degree mark. The weak front and shortwave will pass east of the area on Thursday. Rain will decrease from west to east late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. I expect much of the area to stay dry on Thursday, but don’t be shocked if you see a passing shower. Skies will become partly cloudy on Thursday and Friday, and temperatures will warm into the lower 70s. Lows will fall into the middle 40s by Friday morning due to a little drier air slipping in from the north.

A gusty south wind will develop Friday afternoon and on Saturday. This will be ahead of a strong storm system west of Alabama. A deep upper air trough will cut off into an upper level low across the Plains. The forecast over the weekend and next week will be a tough one because of the tricky movement of upper level lows. Some data brings the system through on Saturday and Sunday, with cooler and drier air moving into the state on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Other data is much slower and keeps the cold front just west of Alabama through Monday before cooler air finally moves in on Tuesday. The more reliable EURO keeps a slower progress, with the heavier rain moving in on Sunday and Monday. This will also mean temperatures will stay mild through Sunday. The GFS is a little faster, with the best chance of rain on Saturday. This model also brings some cooler air into the state on Sunday and Monday. Since the EURO has been more reliable this season, I’m leaning in that direction. Look for a chance of showers and storms at any time over much of the weekend. Rain totals on Saturday, Sunday and Monday could approach 3 inches due to the slow movement of this system. Temperatures will remain mild through Saturday, with highs in the 70s. We’ll fall into the 60s on Sunday and Monday.

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Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott


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