Strong To Severe Storms on Thursday… Cooler Weekend… Wednesday Update 5:35 PM

Good Wednesday to you! It’s been a very nice and warm day across much of the deep south. Temperatures have reached the 72 to 77 degree range this afternoon, which is about 20 degrees above the normal. With warm and moist air across our area, lots of people are asking if we’ll have severe weather tomorrow. The answer is yes, but this won’t be the same event we saw Monday morning. The shear, dynamics and instability are much lower, which will prevent major severe weather issues. That being said, you should stay severe weather alert through the day because it only takes one tornado to cause issues. The best chance of any strong to severe storms will happen along and south of Interstate 20/59.

The upper air trough will deepen up a bit by the weekend, which will allow for cooler air to flow into Alabama. The cooler weather will only be a taste of what we should see this time of the year. Look for highs to return into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Friday and Saturday. We can expect sunshine to return in full force late Friday and for the rest of the weekend. The upper air trough will deepen a little more on Sunday, which will drop highs back into the middle to upper 50s. Due to our progressive pattern, the trough will quickly move east of the area and we’ll begin another warming trend. The coldest overnight temperatures will occur Sunday and Monday morning, where temperatures will fall into the 27 to 32 degree range.

The surface high will keep things dry and calm for much of the weekend, but the high will shift east of the area on Monday and Tuesday. This will allow a warm and moist airmass to advect into the area. Look for highs to reach the lower 60s on Monday and Tuesday. We could reach 70 on Wednesday with a few showers. Clouds will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday as moist and warm air advection promotes some rising air.

Another storm system will move in later next week, which will allow for more rain chances to move into the southeast. We’ll update the forecast as we get closer.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

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Severe Weather Threat on Thursday… Wednesday Update 4:15 PM

 
A good Wednesday afternoon to you! We’re watching for the risk of severe weather on Thursday, but this will not be a repeat of Monday morning. Our threat on Thursday is a low end risk. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central and south Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather. The best chance of anything severe will occur south of Interstate 20/59, where an isolated tornado could spin up or a few damaging wind gusts. The main concern will be in the form of heavy rain and flash flooding. Rain totals could reach 2 inches in spots. With a soggy soil, it won’t take as much wind to bring down trees.
 
Unlike Monday morning’s system, instability and shear is much lower. The dynamics with this system are fairly impressive, but other ingredients appear to be lacking a bit. If the surface low tracks further north, the risk will increase a bit. A further north track would allow higher instability values to reach central Alabama. At this point, I expect the best instability to remain near the coast.
 
Stay severe weather alert through the day on Thursday incase a storm or two gets out of hand. The best chance of anything becoming severe will occur between lunch and 9pm.
 
Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com