Storms About to Reach Northwest Alabama… Sunday Update 10:25 pm

New showers and storms are developing across east Mississippi as the strong upper air dynamics and instability increase ahead of an approaching cold front. The area circled in pink is where the new showers are and storms are rapidly developing. These are in the process of becoming severe and could produce tornadoes. Look for this activity to arrive in Marion and Lamar County between 11:30pm and 12:30am, then spread southeast from there.

The are in white is where the squall line is located. That will be the back edge of the severe weather risk and tornadoes for the night. It will take a while for that to reach us, so look for a long night. The risk of damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible across all of west and central Alabama through the overnight hours. This will be a significant severe weather event, where much of the area deals with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. While most tornadoes should be weak, they can be life-threatening. Damaging wind will also become a big concern. Winds could gust as high as 80mph within the squall line. This is due to strong winds just above the surface.

We’ll go on live for any tornado warnings tonight and will stay on air until all warnings expire. This will be a long night, so make sure you are severe weather alert and have a source to wake you up.

Stay severe weather alert tonight! More updates to come.

We also have lots of updats on facebook and twitter. Search WVUA-TV Weather or weather@wvuatv.com to find us. If you get any severe weather pictures, tag us on facebook or e-mail them to weather@wvuatv.com. Stay safe!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Tornado Watch Coming out of Northwest AL Soon… Sunday Update 10:10 pm

Below is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center. This is talking about the potential new tornado watch for Northwest Alabama… 

  
 PORTIONS OF WW 5 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 06Z EXPIRATION WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS FARTHER E/S IN WRN/MIDDLE TN…NRN/CNTRL MS…NWRN AL…AND PERHAPS  NERN LA.
   
 BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EWD ACROSS NERN AR ON APPROACH TO  THE MS RIVER…WITH A MORE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OCCURRING IN SERN  AR. LONGER-LIVED MESOCYCLONES HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED IN AR…WITH A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES. THIS SUGGESTS  SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVOLVING INTO A COMPARATIVELY  GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER E/SE…A BAND OF SHOWERS HAS
SLOWLY DEEPENED FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA INTO N-CNTRL MS. THESE  SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AS  03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS NOTED A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL  COUPLET…WELL AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT BACK IN NERN TX. GIVEN  THE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT…IT APPEARS REASONABLE THAT A COUPLE OF CELLS WOULD MATURE WITHIN THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND DEEPEN INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

Stay severe weather alert tonight! More updates to come.

We also have lots of updats on facebook and twitter. Search WVUA-TV Weather or weather@wvuatv.com to find us. If you get any severe weather pictures, tag us on facebook or e-mail them to weather@wvuatv.com. Stay safe!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Arkansas Storms Producing Tornadoes – Sunday 8:30 p.m.

4 Ne Fordyce [Cleveland Co, AR] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 07:26 PM CST — 2 houses damagaed on highway 8 northeast of fordyce. no injuries reported at this time.

2 W Coy [Lonoke Co, AR] amateur radio reports TORNADO at 07:40 PM CST — amateur radio operator reported a brief tornado touchdown 5 miles west of Coy.

2 N Slovak [Prairie Co, AR] amateur radio reports TORNADO at 07:59 PM CST — amateur radio operator reports a tornado on the ground 2 miles north of slovak.

4 Nw De Witt [Arkansas Co, AR] storm chaser reports TORNADO at 08:36 PM CST — tornado reported on the ground by storm chasers 4 miles northwest of de witt.

1 W Burks [Arkansas Co, AR] storm chaser reports TORNADO at 08:38 PM CST — tornado reported on the ground 1 mile west of burks.

As for our weather here in Alabama…we are watching the situation and expect the storms to move in more around midnight at this point. We will keep a close watch on tis developing situation and update you here on the blog and on WVUA TV should any warnings be issued.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Overnight Severe Weather Outbreak… Sunday Update 6:41pm

The forecast remains the same, but I had to make some changes to the time-frame. Since the line is still well back to the west, it may take a little longer for the severe weather threat to move into northwest Alabama. As a very strong negative tilted shortwave trough moves just northwest of Alabama tonight, strong forcing, shear, dynamics and moderate instability will move into west and central Alabama. A squall line will move into our area late tonight, and will bring the risk of significant damaging winds, hail and tornadoes. Winds could gust between 60 and 85mph, which will cause very severe damage in spots. Minor to moderate wind damage will become likely along much of the squall line. Winds just above the surface are very strong, so it won’t take much to bring that wind to the surface.

With high levels of shear, and lift, spin up tornadoes will become likely along the squall line. If any cells form ahead of the main line, they stand a better chance of producing tornadoes. Be sure to scroll down for much more detail in my earlier blog updates. This post is to mainly show you an update on the time frame.

Stay severe weather alert tonight! More updates to come.

We also have lots of updats on facebook and twitter. Search WVUA-TV Weather or weather@wvuatv.com to find us. If you get any severe weather pictures, tag us on facebook or e-mail them to weather@wvuatv.com. Stay safe!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

First Tornado Watch of the Night…Just West of AL…Storms Coming – Sunday Update 5:35pm

Here’s the first tornado watch of the night. This is a PDS – Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado watch, which is only issued in the most dangerous events. Numerous tornadoes, some violent, are expected within that watch box. These storms will form into a squall line later tonight as they arrive in west Alabama. It’s going to be a long night… Stay tuned for updates.

We also have lots of updats on facebook and twitter. Search WVUA-TV Weather or weather@wvuatv.com to find us. If you get any severe weather pictures, tag us on facebook or e-mail them to weather@wvuatv.com. Stay safe!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Severe Weather Likely Tonight…Latest Update…Sunday Update 5:10pm Update

Good evening! Above is a map of where the squall line should be through the night. The highest potential for severe weather will happen along and west of Interstate 65 and along and north of HWY 80. In that area, the threat of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes will be the highest. This event will cause some big problems for much of the area, so it is very important you stay severe weather alert through the night. The main threat will be in the form of damaging winds 60 to 85mph, tornadoes, hail and lightning. If any cells develop ahead of the main line, they stand the best chance of producing tornadoes. The chance of supercell storms ahead of the line is pretty low, but we’ll keep an eye on radar trends incase one or two develop. Remember, spin up tornadoes within a squall line are often small and short-lived but they can be very dangerous. With the setup tonight, I wouldn’t be shocked if an isolated strong tornado develops. Widespread damaging winds will cause tornado like damage over a large areas, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to take severe thunderstorm warnings very serious and go to a safe place. There hasn’t been much change in our thinking since my post earlier today. For a more detailed update, be sure to scroll down to my early afternoon update.

Pick out your area on the map. Severe weather could start as early as 7pm in the northwestern corner of the state and will last through midnight. The threat will shift east through the night and will include Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Gordo, Eutaw, Greensboro, Birmingham, Livingston, Jasper, Linden and Demopolis between 11pm and 4am. After that, the threat will shift into east Alabama and should exit east Alabama after 6am. By that point, the line will be weaker.

This event will be moving through the area while most people are asleep, so it’s very important to have a source to wake you up incase a warning is issued for you. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great source for that. We’ll be on air with all tornado warnings in west Alabama on WVUA-TV, so you can catch us on the tube for the latest. If you’re watching and a tornado is moving into an area where you know people, give them a call. Make sure they are awake and aware of what’s happening.

We also have lots of updats on facebook and twitter. Search WVUA-TV Weather or weather@wvuatv.com to find us. If you get any severe weather pictures, tag us on facebook or e-mail them to weather@wvuatv.com. Stay safe!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Severe Weather Outbreak Tonight… Sunday Update 12:45pm

Good Afternoon! We’ve been watching this storm system for days for the potential for severe weather issues around here. Model data trended weaker with the system and instability few days ago, but data has now increased the severe weather parameters to significant levels. This system will be coming through during the worst possible time…At night. Make sure you are severe weather alert this evening and tonight, as we will be dealing with the most significant severe weather event since April 27th. That being said, this will not be an April 27th event.

 

Above is the chance of tornadoes within a 25 mile radius of a point. This is from the Storm Prediction Center. They have 15% over west Alabama, which is very significant. The hatched lines over our area indicate the chance of significant, long track tornadoes. I really feel like the chance of that is fairly low, but not out of the question. Below is the Moderate risk of severe weather issued by the SPC.

What to expect: A warm front is lifting north through Alabama now, and is bringing warm and humid air to all of Alabama. This warm, moist air will serve as fuel for a severe weather outbreak tonight. There could be an isolated severe storm near the warm front, but I don’t expect any major issues through the daylight hours today. The main action will come in tonight, as a vigorous storm system wraps up and becomes negatively tilted northwest of Alabama. This powerful storm system will increase instability to moderate levels and shear to extreme levels. They dynamics, shear, forcing and instability levels are all high enough to cause us some major problems. While model data had been showing a lack of instability, data has increased numbers to concerning levels for January standards. Numerous supercell storms will develop over west Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee this afternoon. These supercells will produce large, long track tornadoes, which will pose a great threat to loss of life and property. These supercells will develop into a squall line during the late evening hours and move into west Alabama tonight. With very strong winds just off the surface, there’s a good chance these winds will reach the surface along the squall line. Winds may reach 60 to 85mph along the line, which will cause significant wind damage. Winds like this can produce tornado like damage. Ahead of the line, there’s a chance of an isolated supercell to develop. If these cells develop ahead of the line, they stand the best chance of producing tornadoes. While the chance of this is fairly low, we will watch the radar close incase these develop. Even along the squall line, there’s a good chance of spin up tornadoes. Some of these tornadoes may even grow to strong levels. No matter if a tornado is weak or strong, they can be deadly, so take every warning very serious!

Time Frame: An isolated severe storm may develop along the warm front between 4pm and 7pm, but the main action will move in after 8pm in our northwest counties. This will be where the best tornado chances will occur. Anywhere west of Interstate 65 and north of HWY 80 will stand a good chance of tornadoes, wind damage and hail. Also heavy rain and lightning will be a concern in that area. The squall line will work through the area and should be east of Interstate 65 after 3am. This will take the threat out of west Alabama.

Please stay severe weather alert through this evening and tonight. Have a source such as a NOAA Weather Radio to wake you up if a warning is issued. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, turn on the TV and watch WVUA. Daniel and I will be on air with all tornado warnings in west Alabama. Since this is coming through at night, any damaging winds and tornadoes will create a higher risk of loss of life. Many folks are in bed and you can’t see tornadoes at night, so this increases the risk. You can call your friends and family and wake them up if they area in the path of a tornado. If you do this, you can help save someone’s life if they area sleep.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, get in a safe place. The lowest floor of your home. In a small room with no windows. We don’t want anyone in a mobile home tonight! Stay with some friends in a site built home tonight. Also, if a warning is issued in your area, don’t get in a car and try to outrun it or see it. This can be a dangerous move on your part. We’ll get you through this, so stay with us for updates. The main point is not to panic if a warning is issued. Remain calm and get in your safe place… You’ll be fine.

More updates to come…

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com