Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8 p.m.

We had a fairly dry afternoon across West Alabama, but more moisture is on the way this weekend. We have a chance for some showers overnight, just some light showers. We’ll start the day out with some patchy fog for our Sunday. Our rain chances start to increase after 9am. The best chance for rain will be in the afternoon hours. There is also the chance for severe weather Sunday night and into Monday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed us under a slight risk and may increase that to a moderate risk later on Sunday. Our best chance to see severe weather will be primarily between 6pm – 6am just ahead of another cold front that will be making its way across the Southeast. We can’t rule out any type of severe weather, we could see strong winds, hail and a possible isolated tornado. There is a near 100% chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night. Our afternoon temperatures on Sunday could get to near 70 degrees.

We will start the week with temps in the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday morning could start in the middle 30s. Tuesday looks to be a dry day before more rain moves in for the second half of the week. We have a moderate chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Our temperatures will top out in the mid 60s through the end of the week. Moisture starts to move out and the suns begins to emerge again on Saturday.

Daniel Sparkman
WVUA Weather

Severe Weather Looking More Likely Sunday Night… Saturday Update 2pm

Good Afternoon! All severe weather issues are over for west and Central Alabama today. Much of the area experienced heavy showers and storms this morning, as a weak cold front pushed through the area. Instability, dynamics, shear and forcing was all marginal for severe weather. Fortunately, there were no major issues with this system. We now turn our attention to another system that’s fast approaching west Alabama.

Conditions will remain quiet through the late afternoon hours on Sunday. We will see a passing shower during the afternoon hours, as warm air advection takes over. Temperatures will easily reach the 70s Sunday afternoon. Look for skies to become mostly cloudy through the day. A strong storm system will take shape to our northwest during the day on Sunday. Above is the day 2 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. They have placed much of Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather. Below is the chance of severe weather, which shows an enhanced area from Tuscaloosa and points north, where significant severe weather is possible. The SPC talks about upgrading to a moderate risk in the next update.

While this system is very impressive, two things will work in our favor to prevent a major outbreak of severe weather. For one, the best dynamics and shear will be just north of Alabama and two, instability values will remain fairly low. The best chance of severe weather will arrive in west Alabama after 9pm and last through daybreak Monday morning. This is a time when afternoon heating is minimized, so that should help some. That being said, shear and dynamics may be high enough to compensate for the lower instability.

As for the threat… Look for supercells to break out over Mississippi during the late afternoon hours on Sunday. These have a good chance of producing tornadoes, some of which could be strong. These cells will quickly evolve into a squall line after sunset and as they move into west Alabama. This will reduce the threat of a tornado outbreak, but widespread damaging winds are very possible through the rest of Sunday night. Winds will approach 60 to 70 mph about 5,000ft off the ground. Storms will easily bring winds like that to the surface. Within the squall line, there’s a risk of a few spin up tornadoes. As model data continues to change, our forecast may have to change some. Stay tuned for updates on tomorrow night’s threat.

Make sure you have a source to wake you incase a tornado warning is issued for your area. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great source! Then, you can tune into WVUA-TV for the latest coverage.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott



Radar Update…Strong to Severe Storms Moving Out – 11:15am Saturday

Good Saturday morning to you! Much of the area has been cleared from the tornado watch, as a weak cold front continues to move in from the north. The latest radar shows the line of showers and storms extending in a line from northern Chilton county southwest into southern Sumter County. These storms are strong, but everything remains below severe limits. A storm could still grow to severe limits for areas along and south of this line, but the chance of that is fairly low. The storms should be south of US Highway 80 by 12:15pm and south of Marengo County by 1pm. They best shear and dynamics are east of Alabama now, so that should reduce the risk of organized severe weather. In-fact, the tornado watch expires at 12pm, and there’s no word of extending that so far.

This line is producing heavy rain, but rainfall rates should stay below flash flood limits. Look for up to 1 inch of rain under this line of storms. We will go quiet and nice for the rest of the day. In-fact, the sun is peaking out along and north of Interstate 20/59. Look for this trend to continue through the rest of the day.

There is a chance we could have some severe weather issues Sunday night. That system looks much more impressive, so we’ll have to watch for the risk of tornadoes and damaging winds. More updates to come later.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Radar Update…Strong to Severe Storms Through Lunch Today… Saturday Update 7:50 am

Much of the area is dealing with showers and storms this morning, as a cold front slowly moves southward through the state. The main band of storms extends from the northwest corner of Pickens County northeast into the Cullman area. The airmass is much more stable just behind that line, so expect the risk of any strong to severe storms to end once that line passes through your area. Its sinking southeast at 20 to 30 mph.

Storms have become a little stronger ahead of the main line, so we’ll have to watch them very close over the next few hours. There’s still that chance of a spin up tornado or damaging wind gust through around lunch. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area under a tornado watch through 12pm. The better dynamics and shear are starting to move out of the area, so the severe weather risk will become a bit lower with time this morning. Also, the front will continue to move south, so the risk will end from northwest to southeast. This isn’t a major risk day by far, but parameters are marginal for some issues. We’ll keep watching the radar through the morning. If a tornado warning is issued for our are, we’ll go on air non-stop. If no tornado warning, keep it here on our blog and on TV tonight at 10pm.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Tornado Watch until 12pm Saturday – 5 a.m. Update

455 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
AUTAUGA              BIBB                BLOUNT             
CALHOUN              CHAMBERS            CHEROKEE           
CHILTON              CLAY                CLEBURNE           
COOSA                CULLMAN             DALLAS             
DEKALB               ELMORE              ETOWAH             
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            GREENE             
HALE                 JACKSON             JEFFERSON          
LAMAR                LAWRENCE            LEE                
LIMESTONE            MACON               MADISON            
MARENGO              MARION              MARSHALL           
MORGAN               PERRY               PICKENS            
RANDOLPH             RUSSELL             SHELBY             
ST. CLAIR            SUMTER              TALLADEGA          
TALLAPOOSA           TUSCALOOSA          WALKER             

Daniel Sparkman
WVUA Weather

Strong to Severe Storms Through Lunch Saturday… Saturday Update 3:30am


Good morning!

Above is the latest radar image as of 3:30am Saturday. An active line of strong to severe storms are moving southeast ahead of a weak cold front. Instability, shear and dynamics are marginal for severe weather this morning, but the threat of damaging winds, small hail and an isolated tornado is possible through lunch today. The line of storms should work into Marion and Lamar County between 4 and 5am, then continue a southeast push through our area. The storms should reach the Tuscaloosa area sometime after 7 or 8am.

There are some showers ahead of the main line, but they are below severe limits at this time. We’ll watch them close, but I don’t expect much to get out of hand ahead of the main line. Once the line passes your area, the threat of severe storms will decrease for the rest of the day through much of Sunday.

This is not a major threat of severe weather, but SPC has us under a slight risk and parts of the area under a tornado watch. More updates to come through the morning if needed.

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WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott