Tornado Watch Until 5am Saturday… Friday Update 10:30 PM

 BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 2
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     1035 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012
    
     TORNADO WATCH 2 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
 ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     COLBERT              FAYETTE             FRANKLIN           
     LAMAR                LAUDERDALE          LAWRENCE           
     LIMESTONE            MADISON             MARION             
     MORGAN               WALKER              WINSTON         

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
   UNTIL 500 AM CST.
  
   TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE  MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE  ALABAMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
  
   REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT ACROSS TN.  STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS  TN…AND A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM OK/AR/MO.  THE WARM SECTOR  S OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER   VERTICAL SHEAR THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING  SEGMENTS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT…BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN THE MOIST/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT…AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Friday Evening Forecast Discussion – 4:30 p.m.


Skies began to clear out a little this afternoon but don’t expect that to last. Overnight the clouds will roll back in and our rain chances will increase. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a cold front that will move into Alabama on Saturday. The primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Due to the slow moving nature of the front, localized flooding could also become an issue for flood prone areas across northern portions of Alabama. The cold front will be located across the northwest Saturday morning between 6 and 8 am and will move into the Birmingham area by noon. By late afternoon the front should stall across the I-85 corridor. Another cold front will push through Alabama late Sunday night and Monday morning. There is a chance of some strong to severe storms developing along the front with the main threat being damaging winds.

Our temperatures today approached 70 degrees. Saturday there should be enough rain to keep us in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight the temps could get into the upper 40s. Sunday we should see some sun early in the day allowing the temperatures to get above the 70 degree mark. Our temperatures will even back out and hover around the low 60s for the start of the week after the cold front moves through the state. Tuesday morning we could start out in the mid 30s. The second half of the week our rain chances increase again.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Slight Risk of Severe Weather This Weekend… Friday Update 4pm

Good Friday afternoon to you! Model data has come in a little more aggressive with severe weather parameters tonight-Saturday and Sunday night. There’s 2 storm systems we’ll be watching close through the weekend, and both systems now bring a low end threat of severe weather.

Above is the severe weather outlook for late tonight and Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area under a slight risk of severe weather. In this risk zone, there’s the chance of hail, damaging winds and an isolated spin up tornado. Much like the past 2 events, this will be a minor threat, but severe weather parameters are just high enough to keep us on watch. There will be no problems through the rest of this Friday afternoon. A little lift through the process of warm and moist air advection as brought some showers to our area. There are still a couple of showers, but nothing is near severe weather limits at this point. An upper air disturbance will move in late tonight and early on Saturday. This will aid in the development of a surface low across north Alabama and Tennessee. The lift, shear and instability is rather low, but again, high enough to keep us on alert for a stray severe storm. Organized showers and storms will develop tonight and last through much of Saturday. It will not rain the entire time, but storms will come and go. 

Above is the severe weather outlook for Sunday. SPC has another slight risk area over much of Alabama, where severe weather parameters are marginal. This will come into play Sunday night and early Monday morning. I don’t expect a major threat of severe weather, but some storms may produce hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. This will happen between 9pm Sunday night and 6am Monday morning. The storm system moving into the area Sunday night is much more powerful, but instability will remain rather low. The best shear and dynamics will also remain north of the area.

Again, remain severe weather alert through the weekend incase any storms grow out of hand. This will not be a weekend with lots of severe weather or an outbreak, but one or two storms may spin up a small tornado. If a warning is issued, we’ll go on live on WVUA-TV with coverage.

Daniel Sparkman is filling in for me today on WVUA-TV. He’ll have more in the forecast today at 4, 5, 6 and 10.

Have a great evening!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

 

Radar Update – Friday 2 p.m.


The rain has ended for most folks around West Alabama, for now. There is still the chance for some showers tonight and during the day tomorrow. Models show some wrap around moisture developing back over parts of Alabama overnight and lasting through much of the day Saturday. There is a chance for some thunderstorms to develop Saturday. There will also be a chance for some showers on Sunday night and into Monday morning. We will have a couple of dry days mid-week before the rain chances return. Temperatures will remain in the upper 60s and low 70s for afternoon highs through the weekend.

Tune in tonight to WVUA News at 4, 5, 6, & 10 for the updated Home Team Forecast

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Friday Morning Thoughts on The Rainy Weekend… Update 9am

 
A good Friday morning to you! Clouds and some light rain will stick around for much of the day as warm and moist air advection provides a little lift in the atmosphere. Showers are light this morning, but I expect the intensity to ramp up a bit this afternoon as the surface continues to heat. I will note that the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of north Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather for today, but the severe weather ingredients look very limited. I think we’ll have just enough lift to spark off the development of showers and an isolated thunderstorm through this evening. I really don’t see much of a threat today, just a good ole rain at times. It won’t rain all day today or over the weekend. Rain will come and go. Look for afternoon highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s today through Sunday.
 
A weak disturbance moves through the deep south on Saturday. That will initiate the development of a very weak surface low. The low will track across north Alabama or Tennessee and will send a weak cold front into central Alabama. The convergence along the front will allow more intense showers and storms during the day on Saturday. Some storms could grow strong to severe, but shear, forcing, dynamics and instability will be lacking for any big issues. We’ll watch the radar through the afternoon and evening hours. The NAM does try to bring CAPE values up to 1,000 J/Kg into southwest Alabama during the afternoon heating. The surface low and weak dynamics are well northeast of the area by that point, so that should limit the risk of anything becoming severe. Again, we’ll keep an eye to the radar incase anything tries to go severe. 
 
We will catch a quick break through Sunday afternoon, but another storm system will bring the risk of showers and storms late Sunday night through early Monday morning. Model data has sped up the arrival of this system a bit, so rain could begin as early as 10 to 11pm in our northwest counties. I expect a few scattered to isolated showers during the day on Sunday, but the more organized activity comes in Sunday night. While the Dynamics will be more impressive with this system, shear and instability will be lacking. In-fact, most data has little to no instability in the area, with low shear values. For big severe weather issues, these numbers would have to increase a bit. If anything changes, we’ll update you on the forecast. At this point, expect a good chance of rain and storm Sunday night, with a slight chance of one of two strong storms. There could be an isolated severe storm, but the risk of that looks pretty low at this point. Most spots will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain between now and Monday morning.
 
Have a great day! Daniel Sparkman will be filling in for me on TV tonight at 4, 5, 6 and 10. 
 
WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott