Cold, then Warm…Rain Ahead…Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:40 PM

A good Wednesday afternoon to you! If you look out the window this afternoon, the weather looks nice and warm. While it looks nice, it feels very cold, with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s in much of the area. The upper air trough that’s moving across the east today will continue to progress along. The pattern continues to support a very progressive setup, so look for big weather changes over the next 7 days.

An Arctic high is moving into the area now, so we can expect winds go calm and temperatures to quickly fall after sunset. Lows will fall into the 18 to 25 degree range. The colder spots will happen near and north of Vernon, Fayette, and Jasper. Low to mid 20s can be expected for the rest of central and west Alabama. A south wind will take over tomorrow as the surface high quickly slides east of the area. Moisture will gradually increase as warm and moist air advection takes over from the Gulf of Mexico. Highs will reach the lower 60s tomorrow afternoon. As moisture begins to increase and clouds move into the area on Thursday night and Friday, temperatures will continue to rise. Lows will reach the upper 30s Friday morning and middle 50s Saturday morning.

Expect clouds to increase on Friday and Saturday. A few showers will also become possible on Friday, but heavier rain moves into the area on Saturday. This is in response to a small scale upper air disturbance and weak surface low. Despite the clouds and some rain, temperatures will still reach the middle to upper 60s. The disturbance will move out of the area on Sunday and skies will become partly cloudy. There’s no cold air behind the front, so temperatures won’t change much at all. Look for highs to remain in the 60s on Sunday.

Model data continues all over the board on Monday and Tuesday’s storm system. The GFS has shown looks from a major severe weather outbreak to a cool and rainy day. The EURO has been the best model this season in terms of its accuracy. Even that model has been questionable with this system. The GEM doesn’t even show a storm system moving through the area. It has a cold front passing through on Monday, with little to no rain. As of now, confidence is very low on Monday or Tuesday’s system. I’ll continue to forecast a chance of showers and storms, with highs in the 70s on Monday, falling into the 50s or low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Keep in mind this could change a bit.

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WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott