Tuesday Evening Forecast Discussion – 5:20 PM

A good Tuesday afternoon to you! Showers and storms will continue across parts of west and central Alabama through this evening. The chance of any severe weather is very low. The batch of heavy rain over south Alabama has blocked the inflow of unstable air into central Alabama.

We’ll continue to watch radar trends through the evening hours, but the chance of any strong to severe storms will quickly end after sunset as temperatures cool a bit. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through midnight, but expect a decrease in clouds and temperatures as a strong cold front moves in from the northwest. Temperatures will reach the freezing point by daybreak, but don’t expect any issues with roads icing over. Road surface temperatures are too warm to cause issues.

Our Wednesday is looking rather cold, with afternoon highs reach the upper 40s. Some spots will have a hard time reaching the lower 40s. Despite a good supply of sun, temperatures will remain cold with a breezy north wind.

The upper air trough will move out of the area quickly and some ridging will move in. This will cause temperatures to warm on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The coldest temperatures over the next 7 days will happen Thursday morning, with a low in the lower to middle 20s. Temperatures during the afternoon and night will quickly warm through the rest of the week and the weekend. Highs will top out at 60 on Thursday with a mostly sunny sky. Many spots will reach the middle to upper 60s over the weekend, with some thermometers reaching 70 on Saturday and Sunday. A fast moving disturbance will bring some increased rain chances on Friday and Saturday. I don’t see this system bringing any severe weather issues at this point.

Another storm system will approach central Alabama on Monday and Tuesday. Some model data has included a risk of severe storms, but the afternoon data has somewhat shifted away from that idea. We will continue to watch next week’s system incase anything changes. At this point, confidence is too low to be specific about severe weather issues on Monday or Tuesday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Radar Update…Storms Moving In – Tuesday Update 3 PM

Good Tuesday afternoon to you! We continue to watch the radar trends close this afternoon as a strong cold front moves through the deep south. Showers and storms have developed across much of Alabama this afternoon, with heavy rain and storms north and south of Interstate 20/59. It’s interesting to note while much of the state is picking up heavy rain and thunderstorms, the Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston and Gadsden area are dry at the moment. I do expect that to change later this afternoon. Look for rain totals to approach 1 to 2 inches under the heavier storms.

As for the severe weather risk… The batch of rain over much of south Alabama is blocking the inflow of unstable air into our central Alabama counties. That being said, there’s still a chance for an isolated severe storm or a quick spin-up tornado along the cold front this afternoon and evening. As of 3pm, the front stretches from Nashville, TN to Vicksburg, MS. That’s also where a line of more intense storms are located. This line will continue to push east over the next several hours and should be moving out of west Alabama by 7 or 8pm this evening. The atmosphere will become increasingly stable after sunset and will reduce any risk of an isolated severe storm. We’ll continue to watch the radar this afternoon and evening. If a tornado warning is issued, I’ll break into programming and stay on until the warning expires. If no tornado warning, join us for more updates live on WVUA news at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm.  

Once the front passes through our area, look for temperatures to quickly fall into the lower 30s tonight. While I am forecasting a light freeze for some areas, I don’t expect roads to ice over. Road temperatures are way too warm for any issues like that.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Heavy Rain, Strong to Severe Storms Today… Forecast Update 10:55am Tuesday

We’re watching the radar close this morning as showers and storms get organized over the deep south. Much of Alabama is dry at the moment, other than a few showers south of Montgomery. Clouds are thick across much of the area, but a breezy south wind is advecting warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. I doubt we see much sun this morning and afternoon, as more clouds are blowing northeast from the storms west of Jackson, MS. While these storms look nasty on radar, they are below severe limits. All storms are moving northeast at 30 to 40 mph.

As for our severe weather risk… The threat is minor in west and central Alabama, but the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area under a slight risk. The risk includes damaging winds, small hail and an isolated tornado. Shear is impressive for this time of the year, but instability is lacking a bit. If temperatures continue to warm a bit before the storms arrive, instability levels will become high enough to support the risk of an isolated severe storm or two. This will not be a day of numerous tornadoes or a severe weather outbreak, but parameters are high enough for us to watch the radar this afternoon and evening. The minor threat will begin in west Alabama between 1pm and 3pm and end from west to east by 7 or 8pm.

If a tornado warning is issued in our area, I’ll be on air non-stop through the warning. If no tornado warnings, you can keep checking here on our weather blog for updates through the day and on WVUA-TV news at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Slight Risk of Severe Storms Today… Tuesday Update 7:45am

  

Good Morning!
 
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of west and central Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather today. The models have come in a little more aggressive with instability and shear values for this afternoon, so the SPC went ahead and placed us under a slight risk.
 
The main threat will happen after 1pm today and last through 6 or 7 this evening. After that, a strong cold front will move through our area, bringing an end to the rain and storms. I don’t expect a major severe weather event at all. We will see lots of rain and some imbedded thunderstorms. Some of these storms could reach strong to severe limits and produce small hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.
 
More updates to come later today.
 
WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott