Severe Weather Threat Very Low…Heavy Rain is Main Concern… Tuesday Update 9:30 PM

The threat of anything becoming severe looks much lower this evening. Showers and storms have moved across the state for much of the day, with rain totals near 3 inches in spots. More showers and thunderstorms are developing across southwest Alabama. This rain is spreading north northeast at 30 MPH.

At this point, there are no signs of this activity going severe. Instability levels aren’t high enough to cause severe weather issues at this point. The main reason for that is because of a large MCS along the gulf coast. This feature has blocked the inflow of instability into our area. This is great news! That being said, the atmosphere is very moist this evening. Any showers and storms that develop will produce heavy rain. Some spots could pick up an additional inch of rain before the cold front passes through the area late tonight.

We’ll continue to watch the radar tonight, but the chance of severe weather is very low. Unless something changes, this will likely become nothing more than a nice rain event.

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Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Looking Ahead, Wednesday – Next Week…Tuesday Evening Forecast Update

Be sure to scroll down for my latest thoughts on tonight’s system.

After our first cold front moves through late tonight or early on Wednesday, expect temperatures to fall on Wednesday. Highs will top out in the upper 50s, with a brisk west wind. Winds could gust to 20 mph behind the front. An upper level low will move across central Alabama, and will bring lots of clouds and a few showers. While I don’t expect a heavy rain, some light drizzle and showers will spread in at times. Clouds will hang tough through tomorrow night and on Thursday. Conditions will become dry on Thursday, but a secondary cold front will push through our state.

Once the front arrives on Thursday, a howling northwest wind will take over, with falling temperatures. Look for the front to arrive sometime during the afternoon hours. Moisture will be limited with the front, so don’t expect any rain. There will be just enough moisture to allow clouds to increase ahead of the front on Thursday. Much colder air will move in on Friday, with highs in the 40s. Some places north of Fayette and Jasper may stay in the 30s all day. Lows will fall into the lower 20s Friday and Saturday morning. We can expect a good supply of sun over the weekend. Despite the sun, it will feel cold.

A gradual warming trend will take over just in time for the early portion of next week. Highs are in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday and Tuesday. Another storm system will arrive on Tuesday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Lots of Rain, With Some Strong to Severe Storms…Tuesday Update 3:20 PM

Much of west and central Alabama has picked up some nice rain totals over the past 24 hours, as an area of low pressure tracks northwest of the area. Radar estimates show between 0.50 and 2.50 inches so far, but I expect totals to rise as more showers and storms develop this evening and tonight.

Above is a map of the severe weather potential and time estimate. Since the storm system has slowed its eastward progression a bit, any risk of strong to severe storms will occur tonight between 6pm and 3am. The best chance of organized severe weather will happen along the coast, where the atmosphere is a little more unstable. The heavy rain we dealt with most of the day has really stabilized conditions north of US HWY 80. Rain continues to fall in parts of west and central Alabama, but the heavier rain has moved out for the moment. The cool, rainy day has greatly reduced a big severe weather threat around here. Model data continues to bring a batch of instability into west and central Alabama after 6pm, so we’ll continue to watch for a risk of strong to severe storms. I don’t see this being a major threat for our area, but some storms could grow strong to severe, with the risk of hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. This activity should move east of the area after 3am tonight.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Heavy Rain and Severe Storms on This Tuesday… Tuesday Update 9:30am

Much of the area is dealing with moderate to heavy rain this morning. A batch of rain and thunderstorms are lifting in from the southwest. Look for rain totals between 1 and 2 inches with this batch moving in now. This first round of rain and storms will remain below severe limits We will catch a break later this afternoon and instability will increase ahead of a cold front and squall line.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather for this afternoon and tonight. Model data has come in a little more aggressive with instability values, with CAPE reaching nearly 1,000 J/kg later this evening and tonight and shear values over 250 m/s. That is certainly favorable for a few severe storms, so we will watch the radar close. The main threat will be in the form of heavy rain, damaging winds, hail and an isolated, small tornado. This won’t be a day where we have large, long track tornadoes, but there could be a couple EF-0 to EF-1 tornadoes. As we all know, even weak tornadoes can be dangerous, so take any warning serious. This threat includes all of west and central Alabama between 3pm and 3am. The squall line will work from west to east across the state, so the threat will end once the line passes your area. 

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Roll Tide! Check This Out From The WVUA Tuscaloosa Towercam

Check out this image taken exclusively from WVUA Tuscaloosa Towercam. We’re looking at the strip on University Boulevard. There are hundreds of people in the street celebrating the 14th National Championship for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Roll Tide!

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com