Nice Tuscaloosa Sunset – 5:20 PM Friday Update

Here’s a very nice west Alabama sunset. We’re looking west with our Tuscaloosa towercam, in the direction of Bryant-Denny Stadium. Clouds are increasing ahead of our next rain maker. Be sure to scroll down for a full discussion on this next system and your forecast.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Mild Through Tuesday, Strong Storms Ahead… Friday Evening Update 4:50 PM

A good Friday afternoon to you! It’s a lot warmer this afternoon, with many spots reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies are becoming mostly cloudy as a weak upper air disturbance moves in from the southwest. This system will zip on by tonight and early tomorrow. We will pick up a few showers, but rain will be rather light. Lift from the upper level disturbance and a weakening cold front will aid to enhance clouds across the deep south this evening through the weekend. The forecast does get rather complicated first thing next week, as a vigorous storm system moves this way.

The short term forecast is simple. Clouds will increase as well as low level moisture. A surface high positioned southeast of Alabama will continue to pump in lots of tropical moisture. Our dewpoints are in the 50s this afternoon, which is making conditions feel a little muggy. The upper air disturbance will initiate a few showers late tonight and on Saturday. As a weak cold front moves into the area, it will also help to enhance rain chances through the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. The front will run out of upper air support and become stationary across central or north Alabama. It will be close enough to serve as a focal mechanism for showers and an isolated thunderstorm through the rest of the weekend and into Monday. Look for afternoon highs in the lower 70s to upper 60s through Tuesday, with lows in the 50s. While showers are a good bet Saturday through Monday, it will not rain all day and rain totals won’t be that heavy.

People are already asking about Tuesday’s storm system and whether we’re going to have any severe weather issues. First, this will not become an April 27th type of day. That was a perfect setup of severe weather that we will likely not see again for a long time. Some severe weather parameters will possibly match Tuesday afternoon through the overnight hours. A strong storm system will develop over the southern Rockies and Plains Sunday night and Monday. As this system moves east, a strong surface low will also develop over the northern Gulf and will track northeast. The exact track and strength of the low is critical to our severe weather risk on Tuesday. If the low deepens rapidly and moves north of our area, our chance of severe weather will increase. A track north of the area would allow more moisture and heat to advect in from the south; this would cause instability to increase. Models are marginal on instability at this point, but that could change in coming days. The dynamics, forcing and shear is very impressive with this system, so it won’t take that much instability to cause some problems.

The bottom line is that things could easily change over the next couple of days to a more or less severe weather look. Keep it here for the latest on our weather blog or live on WVUA-TV through the weekend. At this point, the primary concern is from damaging winds.

Much cooler air is set to arrive on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The coldest air will move in as the upper air trough really deepens on Thursday and Friday. I have a forecast high in the 50s, but some data has trended colder late in the week, and I may need to drop highs down a bit.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Warm Weekend, Strong Storms on Tuesday… Friday Update 10:40 am

A good Friday morning to you! After a cool start to the day, temperatures are warming quick! Look for highs to return into the 68 to 71 degree range today. The eastern US trough is long gone now, and some ridging is helping to warm us up. Plus, a south flow at the surface is pulling warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will remain warm through early next week. A weak cold front will stall across north Alabama on Saturday. This will bring the risk of a few showers on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. I don’t expect a widespread heavy rain, but showers will come and go at any time on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Keep the rain gear with you.

Above is the surface chart with QPF and temperatures. This map is valid for 9pm Tuesday evening. There’s a 1003mb low over southeast Arkansas with a line of strong to severe storms moving into west Alabama. A good south flow ahead of this low will likely bring deep tropical moisture and warmer temperatures before the storms arrive. The big question is the amount of instability. The shear and dynamics are very impressive with this system, so we’ll have to watch trends close. Based on the strength and position of the surface low, it’s in a good place for severe weather in Alabama. The key factor of whether this is just a rain maker or we have issues with severe weather will be the amount of instability. It doesn’t take much instability this time of the year to cause some problems, so it’s a good idea to stay tuned to WVUA for the latest. I’ll have lots of updates on here between now and then, plus, you can join us on TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10.

Below is the 500mb chart valid for 9pm Tuesday. The deep upper level low is just west of Alabama. Again, the dynamics are impressive with this system, so we’ll have to watch it close. This system will quickly move out Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The threat won’t last that long. Look for about a 6 hour window of strong to severe storms in west and central Alabama late Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night.  

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com