Very Wet and Stormy Christmas Week! Monday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:50 PM

Good Monday afternoon to you! We have a rough Christmas week in store for you, with lots or rain and some storms. If you have travel plans anytime over the next 7 days, it will be a good idea to keep checking on the forecast.

It’s been a little warmer on this Monday, with highs in the 60s for much of the area. Clouds are starting to fill in from the west, and skies will gradually become cloudy tonight and on Tuesday. A massive storm system is producing blizzard conditions for much of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma and Kansas.

This system will migrate eastward over the next couple of days and will bring a good shot of rain in our area tomorrow and on Wednesday. Showers will become likely, with a few embedded thunderstorms. While there is a slight risk of severe weather in our area, ingredients aren’t all that favorable for widespread severe weather. At most, a storm or two may grow out of hand and produce a damaging wind gust or a quick spin-up tornado. The best chance of this will happen in areas near and northwest of Tuscaloosa. Again, this is not a major threat.

Temperatures will remain fairly mild over the next couple of days, with highs in the 60s through Thursday. Another storm system will develop and could produce move heavy rain in the area sometime on Thursday, through Friday morning. This activity should start to move out of the area by Friday afternoon. At this point, I don’t expect a risk of severe weather with that system, but we’ll watch it close. Heavy rain will become the main threat.

Christmas Eve looks dry at this point. If you have travel plans, there shouldn’t be any issues. Model data is all over the board on what happens over the weekend, so I advise you to keep it right here with WVUA for the latest updates. There could be some quick forecasting changes for the weekend. Data is hinting at another storm system moving in on Christmas Day or the following Monday. Temperatures will be getting chilly at this point, but I don’t expect a white Christmas. Some folks may see a little snow in the south on Monday. It will be a tricky forecast, as moisture moves into colder air nearby. I’ll update the forecast on that as we get closer.

Rain totals over the next 7 days could reach 5 inches.

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Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Severe Weather Tomorrow Afternoon/Night? Monday Morning Thoughts… 10am

 
A good Monday morning to you! We’re watching a major blizzard west of Alabama today, where up to 2 feet of snow is possible over portions of the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma and Kansas. Winds will gust over 50 mph in that area as well.
 
The same storm system will be responsible for bringing a risk of showers and storms to our area Tuesday through Wednesday. During this time, there is a chance of isolated strong to severe storms. CAPE values will approach 500 j/k2 and 0 – 1 km Helicity will approach 250 m2/s2. For a late December storm system, numbers like that are marginal for severe weather. The surface low will be weak and track well north of the area, so we won’t have the true backing of the surface winds you need for major severe weather issues. That being said, there is a risk of an isolated severe storm or two. The Storm Prediction Center has placed northwest Alabama under a slight risk. In the area near and northwest of Greensboro, there is a risk of a storm producing damaging winds or a weak, quick tornado. This doesn’t not look like a major issue, but we’ll watch the radar trends close tomorrow afternoon and night. The best time-frame for anything becoming strong to severe will occur between 3pm Tuesday and 1am Wednesday morning. After that, instability and shear starts to move out of the area as we lose heating and the surface low/dynamics lift well north of the area. Showers will linger through much of the day on Wednesday, but the risk of severe storms will greatly diminish.
 
Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV tonight at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm for the latest on the forecast. We want your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com or tag us on facebook. Search us by WVUA-TV Weather or weather@wvuatv.com
 
Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist

 rscott@wvuatv.com