Thursday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:40 PM Update

A good Thursday afternoon to you! If you read the post below, all eyes turned to Tropical Storm Nate when the 12z model runs shifted the storm in our direction. Since then, the 18z data has shifted back to the west. This being said, the track of this storm is very much up in the air at this point. We will keep a close eye on Nate, as track in our direction is a possibility. The future track of Nate depends on a lot of things. A weak upper air trough over the east and southeast is providing a channel for Nate to travel into, but questions come into play such as will a developing ridge block the storm from moving north, or will the trough be strong enough to pull Nate northward. I’m not confident enough to forecast impacts here or not just yet. I’ll wait until tomorrow before coming up with a better forecast track. We have time to watch it; in-fact, Nate will likely meander around for a couple of days in the southwest Gulf before making a move to the north or to the west.

Our local weather couldn’t have been much better today, with plenty of sun and dry conditions. Temperatures made it into the lower 80s this afternoon. With extremely dry air in place and clear skies, temperatures will quickly fall back into the 50s tonight. We will bottom off somewhere around 55 degrees. Much like today, the forecast will remain the same on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Highs will top out between 82 and 85, and lows will bottom out between 54 and 58.

We’ll have a sunny sky through the weekend, with no chance of rain through Sunday. Questions come into play early next week, as Nate could bring some issues. Without impacts from the storm, conditions will stay dry and warm.

If you’re heading to State College on Saturday, there will be a few showers around. Temperatures will remain in the 70s during the game. The kickoff time is at 2:30 PM local time.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 and on weekends at 10 O’clock for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Will Tropical Storm Nate Reach Alabama? Thursday Update 11:45am

Here’s the 12z run of the tropical models for the next few days. This data is shifting more into a northern gulf coast landfall. Data is still iffy this morning, but confidence is increasing on a northern gulf coast landfall. This is why….

A ridge developing over the Caribbean should turn Nate to the north over the next couple of days. A weak upper air trough over the southeast could pull Nate in the general direction of Alabama. The question is whether a ridge will develop north of Nate and drive it west. My gut feeling is that the ridge will not develop north of this system and the trough over the eastern half of the nation will be enough to draw it north and into the northern gulf coast. There are still some questions and it’s going to take a couple of days to fine-tune the details. With a lot of dry air over the northern Gulf, I think this will keep Nate from becoming a major hurricane. Plus, shear over the northern gulf will keep Nate in check if it moves our way. That being said, there is room for changes and we’ll have to watch that close. As we all know, it doesn’t take a major hurricane to bring problems to Alabama.

This will not impact our weather over the weekend. It will be sometime next week before Nate has the potential to Impact our forecast. More details to come.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV today at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com