Hurricane Irene A Major Threat to Mid Atlantic States… Tuesday Update at 10:20 PM

Hurricane Irene is now a major threat for the mid Atlantic states. In-fact, the National Hurricane Center has Irene as a hurricane right over New York City on Sunday. This will bring damagaing winds into many of the highly populated cities like Washington, DC, New York, and Boston. This is something that doesn’t happen often at all. Storm surge will also become a big problem for the east coast from North Carolina to Maine. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

IT IS FORTUNATE THAT WE HAVE A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IRENE AND TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT…ONE FROM NOAA AND THE OTHER FROM THE AIR FORCE…IN THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE TONIGHT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INCREASE OF BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM BOTH PLANES HAS COME DOWN TO 969 MB AND THE MAX FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 101 KNOTS. HOWEVER…DATA FROM THE SFMR INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS.  IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION…THE OVERALL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ABOUT A DAY.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE OF 8 KNOTS. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN…THERE IS NO REASON TO MODIFY THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS…AND THEN NORTHWARD PARALLELING THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST AND VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND EVEN THE STUBBORN GFDL WHICH PREVIOUSLY INSISTED ON BRINGING IRENE TOWARD FLORIDA HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST EVEN MORE.

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WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

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A New York City Hurricane? Tuesday Afternoon Update 4:45 PM

This is something you don’t see very often. Hurricane Irene is forecasted to move northwest over the next few days, with a turn to the north and north northeast by the weekend. The track has shifted eastward a bit, and this storm could become a big problem for big cities such as Washington DC, New York City and Boston. With a track like this, Hurricane Irene will affect a lot of land, especially if the center stays right along the coast or just offshore. This is a forecast that you don’t see often. If you have plans along the east coast over the weekend, use caution as Irene moves northward.

Be sure to scroll down for the latest on your forecast.

Also, join me on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter. Search us by weather@wvuatv.com.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:12 PM Update

 

A good Tuesday afternoon to you! We’re watching powerful Hurricane Irene plow through the eastern Bahamas right now. This storm will likely become a major hurricane later today or tonight. If you have plans along the east coast of the US or in the Bahamas over the next few days, plan around this storm. Irene is dangerous now but will likely become even more dangerous over the warm waters and favorable environment.

Dry air has settled into Alabama today, and that has made for some changes in our local weather. While it hasn’t felt as hot as recent days, it’s actually hotter than recent days. Dry air heats and cools very effectively, so with a sunny sky, temperatures jumped quickly. Tuscaloosa has reached 101 this afternoon, with many other spots reaching near the same. The good news is that humidity levels have been much lower today. This makes it feel a little more bearable. Either way, 101 degree is still hot. Temperatures will remain in the upper 90s to around 100 through Friday. An isolated shower or two has popped up over southern Perry County and Marengo County, but they are few in number. The chance of rain is very low for areas north of HWY 80, but a stray storm can’t be ruled out south of HWY 80 this afternoon. The air is a little more moist in our southern counties.

As hurricane Irene moves up the east coast over the weekend, the storm will actually help to bring some drier and slightly cooler air in from the north. This should help temperatures settle into the lower 90s on Saturday and Sunday. Lows will fall back into the 60s.

The chance of rain over the next 7 days is very low. We need the rain, but it doesn’t look likely at this point. Skies will remain sunny, with only a few afternoon clouds at times.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter. Search us by weather@wvuatv.com.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Big 5.9 Earthquake near Washington DC! Tuesday Update at 1:30 PM

A 5.9 Earthquake just happened about 80 miles south southwest of Washington DC in the last hour. This is a pretty significant earthquake for this part of the world. People have reported feeling the quake as far away as Atlanta, GA. Some reports have come out of east Alabama, where people felt a small trimmer. Did you feel it? If so, leave a comment on this post.

There are all kinds of fault lines that run along the mountains from the northeast down to northern Georgia. Small earthquakes are not that uncommon, but ones this size is very rare. There will likely be some small aftershocks in that area later today and over the next few days.

Here’s the locations:

  • 14 km (9 miles) SSW (195°) from Mineral, VA
  • 17 km (10 miles) SSE (165°) from Louisa, VA
  • 23 km (14 miles) NE (52°) from Columbia, VA
  • 33 km (21 miles) E (97°) from Lake Monticello, VA
  • 58 km (36 miles) NW (312°) from Richmond, VA
  • 141 km (88 miles) SW (216°) from Washington, DC

 

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Latest on Hurricane Irene… Tuesday Update at 12:30 PM

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

…IRENE APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.5N 71.0W
ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI…85 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE… WHILE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 77 AND 90 KT…RESPECTIVELY…AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS MORNING HAD ISSUES WITH THE ON-BOARD RADAR.
THIS REQUIRED A CHANGE IN AIRCRAFT AND THE NEW PLANE JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER…REPORTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB…ABOUT THE SAME AS DURING THE PREVIOUS MISSION.

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER IRENE….AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS A RESULT…THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND…THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE…BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS…AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
INCREASES BY DAY THREE…RANGING FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO WELL OFFSHORE…WITH THE UKMET ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AND THE GFS/NOGAPS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE UPDATED TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK…ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5…SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES…RESPECTIVELY.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Hurricane Irene Update – Tuesday 2 a.m.

Here is the latest on Hurricane Irene which remains with maximum sustained winds at 100 mph. It continues WNW at 12 mph.

HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 69.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 
185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND LOCALIZED
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING.  THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather