Tropical Storm Irene Update – Sunday 10 p.m.

Irene strengthens as most models begin a shift to the east. Two models however hold out and show a path into the Gulf of Mexico.

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

…IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 50 MI…75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 50 MI…85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO…VIEQUES…AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST.  IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT…AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES…240 KM FROM THE CENTER.  A STATION AT SALT RIVER BAY ON ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH…76 KM/H…AND A GUST TO 57 MPH…92 KM/H.  ROOSEVELT ROADS NAVAL STATION ON PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH…72 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB…29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…EASTERN PUERTO RICO…CULEBRA AND VIEQUES…AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO…VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT…AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.  THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY…AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…HAITI…THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO…AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM AST.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

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Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 6 p.m.

A weak frontal boundary and associated upper level short wave trough dug into the deep south this afternoon with some afternoon showers along the boundary. The showers to the south should mostly dissipate by sunset, however some lingering showers or thunderstorms will be possible this evening as the boundary moves farther in the state.

We now have a pretty good consensus with the models for Monday as the boundary slides into southern Alabama by tomorrow morning, confining any showers to the southern third of the state.

A secondary boundary that contains drier air will begin to dig farther south and through central and west Alabama by Monday evening. This secondary boundary is associated with an upper trough that will keep a break in the ridging across the east coast and allor for the tropical system Irene to stay east of Alabama. The latest models have come into a failry good consensus with the positioning of Irene and now expecting her impacts on West Alabama will be to limit our rain chances and reinforce the drier air. Some of Alabama’s eastern counties could get some of the outer rain bands from Irene on Saturday. As we’ve been saying the handling of hurricanes with the models is always somewhat uncertain this far out, so any adjustments westward with the track could have a more significant impat for West Alabama.

Temperatures are expected to remain hot in the afternoons with highs in the 90s. The drier air should allow for overnight temperatures to be a bit cooler come midweek. Some rural valley locations could see temps Wednesday morning in the lower 60s.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Irene Is Getting Stronger…. Sunday Update at 4 PM

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

IRENE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES…WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE AROUND 0000 UTC.  WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE STORM…THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE LAND INTERACTION.  IF IRENE MOVES OVER MORE OF HISPANIOLA OR OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED HERE…HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MOVING TO THE NORTH OF BOTH OF
THOSE LAND MASSES IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW NEAR 285/15.  IRENE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO…AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS…A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND DAY 3.  SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO HAS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK…ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Thoughts on Irene… Updated 1:35 PM Sunday

 

We’re watching tropical storm Irene very close this afternoon, but the system has some dry air around it. This is keeping Irene from getting very well organized at this hour, but that is expected to change quickly. Irene will likely undergo some rapid develoment before moving into the big islands of the Greater Antillies. Notice below how the majority of the computer models take right over Haiti and Cuba. This will likely disrupt the circulation center. There are still more questions than answers, but models have trended eastward again as an upper air trough develops over the southeast. This should pull it north. Since this turn is still 4 days out, we need to keep an eye on it. Suprises happen with these tropical systems as they interact with the ridge/trough pattern and land. The chance of this system impacting Alabama is a bit lower, but isn’t out of the question. I’ll feel much better about this in the next couple of days if data continues to trend east.

Meanwhile, our friends along the east coast needs to keep a close eye on this as well. Some data develops this into a major hurricane. I’ll have a full update on here tomorrow. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

TS Irene Forecast Discussion from NHC – Sunday 5 a.m.

The following is the latest discussion from National Hurricane Center forecasters on what they think will happen with Tropical Storm Irene.

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER    3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL         AL092011
500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CENTER REDEVELOPED ABOUT 60 NMI FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER…A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS…WHICH HAS ERODED SOME OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT…WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE NEXT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO RECONNOITER IRENE WILL BE 1200 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/18 DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND BERMUDA INDICATE A FAIRLY STOUT DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF IRENE. THE RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT…A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…FLORIDA…AND THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA AND EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. THOSE LATTER TWO MODELS KEEP IRENE ON A WESTERLY TRACK SOUTH OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL…DESPITE THEIR DEVELOPING A SIMILAR BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5…AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION… AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF LOW SHEAR AND A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO THE EAST ACTING AS A MASS SINK FOR THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER…THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION IRENE HAS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND WHAT THE INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES AFTER IT EMERGES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. ONCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS…HOWEVER… IRENE WILL HAVE AT LEAST 24 HOURS OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER IN THE ATLANTIC TO TAP INTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO LAND EFFECTS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.4N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 17.0N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.5N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 18.0N 69.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 18.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 20.3N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 22.8N 78.2W 60 KT 70 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Tropical Storm Irene Update – Sunday 4 a.m.


Here is the latest on Tropical Storm Irene. The storm continues to move to the west at around 20 mph.  As to where Irene will head over the next few days, models are starting to spread out a bit. This just goes to show that there are still a lot of factors that are influencing this system. Confidence will start to go up once the models start to merge together.

The intensity forecast is much of the same, a lot of factors and time go into the accuracy of these models. With that said, I want you to have the most current information. There is a lot of variety in the intensity forecasts as well just going to show that there is still a lot of doubt still in the forecast.

Below is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD
TO THE HAITI BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICA
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...REPORTS FROM RADAR...SATELLITE...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON.  IRENE COULD APPROACH
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...
240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT...AND
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

Daniel Sprakman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather