Meteor Shower Tonight and Saturday Night… Friday Update at 6:22 PM

Be sure to keep an eye to the sky tonight and Saturday night, as we’ll be in the peak of the Perseid Meteor Shower.

Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. International observers are now reporting more than 20 Perseids per hour, a number that will increase as the shower reaches its peak on August 12-13.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Source: Spaceweather.com & http://struckbyenlightning.wordpress.com

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Friday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – Updated at 5 PM

A good Friday afternoon to you! Our weather has become fairly quiet today as we’re in-between two systems, so the showers and storms are hard to find. The first cold front of the season is expected to arrive on Sunday. This will give us a better chance of scattered storms, but the rain chance isn’t that high. Since the cold front is scheduled to move in Sunday morning, daytime heating will be minimized. This should keep the good rain scattered to isolated. I have a 40% chance of rain in the forecast on Saturday and a 30% on Sunday. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 90s on Saturday and Sunday, but storms will cool some folks off a bit.

Cooler air is about to take over the eastern half of the nation late in the weekend and early next week. Locally, highs will fall into the upper 80s and lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday and as dry air takes over, it’s going to feel great out there on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows at night will fall into the middle 60s. I wouldn’t be surprised if some spots reach 59 degrees Monday and Tuesday morning to the north of Tuscaloosa. This will only happen in the cold spots like Haleyville and Jasper. Skies will become sunny on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s still summer, so the nice break won’t last long this time of the year. Temperatures will gradually warm back into the middle and upper 90s on Thursday and Friday of next week. Small rain chances will also return late next week. So far, there are no signs of a heavy rain late next week; instead, we’ll likely see the scattered hit or miss storms.

The tropics have become very active today, as we now have 4 areas we’re watching. One of those have become tropical depression # 6. Many of the disturbances will turn out to sea, but the one last in line has us a little more concerned. It has the best chance of becoming a threat to the US. We still have plenty of time to watch it.

Be sure to join us on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Also, send us your weather pictures to weather@wvuatv.com.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Very Active Tropics… Update Friday at 4:15 PM

We have numerous areas we’re watching in the tropics right now. In-fact, tropical depression # 6 has just formed north of Bermuda. Below is the discussion on that feature. The one we’re watching the most is the tropical low in the far east Atlantic. Model data brings that low in the direction of the US in the next 10 days. We still have plenty of time to watch that system. It’s still unclear where it will end up. More to come…

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR TWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS. IN ADDITION…DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY REPORTS…THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR…FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR…AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS…AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

WVUA Chief Meterologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Update – Friday 2 a.m.


As predicted recently by the National Hurricane Center, things are really starting to fire up around the Atlantic. There are several areas of low pressure that we are taking a look at but only a couple that we really need to keep a close eye on. We’ll start and talk about them in order as shown in the picture above.

Starting with 1. also known as Invest 92L. The broad area of low pressure centered about 1,000 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands is moving westward at near 15 mph. The associated shower activity remains disorganized and satellite imagery suggests the system may currently be encountering a drier and more stable air mass. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development during the next several days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.



Current forecast models mostly have the same arch to them taking Invest 92 off to the northwest. About half of the models predict that the system will eventually impact the U.S. east coast, while the other half predict the system will move off into the open Atlantic not affecting land. With this system entering an area of drier air it will likely have a difficult time strengthening. Current intensity forecasts have the storm slowly developing…a tropical storm within the next 48 hours and possibly to hurricane strength by Wednesday morning. As with any system, this one is way out there in the Atlantic and a lot of things will change between now and then.

On to system number 2, aka Invest 93L. The low pressure system located about 275 miles south-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.


Invest 93 is one we are going to be keeping a very close eye on. It is forecast to take a much more southernly track. A lot of the development for 93 will depend on how much Invest 92 cleans out the area, which it is expected to do. Some of the current forecast tracks take 93 into the Caribbean Sea and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. Also there are some models that predict 93 will make more of a right turn and head up toward the east coast. As for the intensity forecasts, some models have this system developing quickly into a tropical storm and then into a hurricane within the next 3-4 days. A lot of environmental factors will play a role into what happens to this system, so we will have to watch and see over the next few days as it continues to develop.


Area number 3 has yet to be given a distinction by the NHC, as for right now it is just a trough of low pressure. Shower activity associated with the trough located about 250 miles west-northwest of Bermuda has become a little better organized during the past several hours. Additional slow development is possible during the next day or so before the disturbance merges with a frontal system. The system has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves northeastward at 15 to 20 mph.


Area 4 is the newest system to start developing. An area of disturbed weather has formed in association with a broad area of low pressure about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Slow development is possible during the next couple of days as the low moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph. This system has a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. As with the previous system, this area has yet to develop enough to warrant the calculation of forecast model tracks and intensity forecasts.

We will continue to watch all of these areas and keep you up-to-date online and on WVUA News.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather