Thoughts on Emily? US Landfall???? Sunday Update 2:53 PM

What is soon to become tropical storm Emily is a little more concerning this afternoon. After looking at data, it looks more and more like Emily will miss the deep eastern US trough and continue west northwestward. Data now shows a strong hurricane over the Bahamas in 6 days. As a ridge develops north of this feature, there’s a chance it could turn more westward and move into Florida or the southeast coast as a major Hurricane. While this is 6 to 8 days out, we should start to keep a very close eye on forecasting trends. If the models continue to show Emily missing the trough and turning towards the US coastline, anyone from North Carolina to Texas should keep an eye on it.

At this point, there’s no way to say where it will make landfall, how strong it will be then, or if it will even reach the coast period. There’s still a chance that it catches the trough and heads out to sea. Just know if it misses the trough and turns west, someone is going to have some big issues. I think there’s a real chance that Emily could become the first hurricane and first major hurricane of the 2011 season. There are lots of things working in favor of this… The lack of wind shear, plenty of tropical moisture, warm water temperatures and open water ahead.

Stay tuned…

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

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