Future TS Emily Taking Shape – Sunday 2:45 pm Update

Tropical Storm Emily continues to take her time actually becoming a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center now has it at near 100% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system. The large and elongated low pressure system is located about 575 miles east of the northern Windward Islands. Although the system has changed little in organization today environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for a tropical depression to form later today or on Monday. The system is currently moving west-northwestward at near 15 mph. If the low becomes a tropical cyclone later today, Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings would likely be required for portions of the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this developing system.

Forecast models continue to predict that the system will eventually make a turn to the north, but the system continues to move more westward pushing the turn further west. We will have to continue to monitor the progress of the system to see what part of the U.S. coastline may be impacted.

As for the strength of this system, models still show it becoming a tropical storm within the next 12 hours. Some of the models are even forecasting this system becoming a Category 4 hurricane. These predictions are still very up-in-the-air depending on where the storm goes and how it interacts with any land that it may pass over. It will be interesting to watch.

Tune in tonight to WVUA News at 10 for the latest on the tropics.

Daniel Sparkman
WVUA Weather

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