Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 9:29 p.m.

Sunday through Tuesday

A weak upper low over MIssissippi has brought scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to West Alabama today. The upper low is caught in a holding patter with the upper ridge to our north. As a chunck of the upper high ridge moves back to the west and a upper level trough begins to push southward over the upper midwest states, this will help nudge the Mississippi upper low northeastward. Activity over Alabama will be  mostly due to afternoon heating and will quickly diminish after sunset. There will likely be a few showers near the upper low overnight and sligh chance of rain across West Alabama after midnight.

The better moisture and lift will be over Alabama on Sunday as the upper low lift northeast resulting in good rain chances across a large portion of our area. The activity will likely be in the form of showers with isolated thunderstorms due to cloud cover and weak lift. The trough will continue to push southward into north Alabama on Monday. Monday should be the day with the best rain chances. The trough will sink into south Alabama on Tuesday and the better rain chances will be across southern half of Alabama. The surface front or boundary will get hung up farther north which will trigger a few thunderstorms across areas along and just north of I-20. It is possible that the storms that develop along the surface boundary could be strong to severe if the clouds break and temperatures climb into the middle 90s.

Wednesday through Saturday

The surface boundary and associated deep moisture over south Alabama will begin to shift back northward Wednesday and especially Thursday as an upper high moves down into the Mid-Atlantic states. This will bring near normal rain chances to the area Wednesday and Thursday. The upper high will slide towards the Gulf coast region by the weekend and rain chances will diminish over Alabama along with warmer temperatures.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

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Invest 90L Churns in Caribbean – 9:25 p.m.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispanola, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds, as well as the interaction of the disturbance with the land masses of Hispanola and Cuba are expected to prevent significant development over the next couple of days as the system moves to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. This system has a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Nevertheless, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds can be expected over Puerto Rico and Hispanola through Sunday.


Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather