Sunday Night Forecast Discussion – 9:30 p.m.

Tuscaloosa tied a record high temperature today at 86 degrees set back in 2001.

Overnight tonight lows will generally be in the low to mid 60s. Added some patchy light drizzle in for the west overnight.

Details regarding the system impacting the area on Monday have changed very little since this morning, except a slight slowdown in the timing. A cold front will move across Central Alabama during the day. Models continue to indicate that the primary convective mode will be a squall line just ahead of the cold front. The weather should enter the northwestern counties after noon, reaching the I-59 corridor before 7 p.m. and exiting the southeast counties by 11 p.m.

The best instability will be west of I-675 during the afternoon hours with all severe weather parameters decreasing through the evening hours. Therefore the greatest threat will be across West Alabama and lessening as the squall line moves east of I-65.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has much of Alabama under a Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow except for areas south of I-85. Damaging winds will be the biggest threat as there is plenty of dry area aloft showing up along with strong WSW winds. Hail will also be a threat but to a lesser degree. Low level shear is minimal so the tornado threat will be very low, however will not completely rule out the possibility.

Slightly drier and cooler air will filter into the region behind the cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will actually fall back to near normal on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will slowly moderate this week and will be back in the upper 70s to low 80s by Thursday.

The next storm system will impact the region late in the week as another cold front will push eastward across the area bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to West Alabama in the Friday timeframe.

Daniel Sparkman
WVUA Weather