West Alabama Forecast for Friday, October 8

 

We’re wrapping up the work week in West Alabama with more sunshine…but gradually warmer afternoon temps.  We will start this Friday with temperatures in the upper 40’s/lower 50’s.  Look for plenty of sunshine during the day with highs in the upper 80’s. Over the weekend, we’ll see sunny and warm days and comfortable evenings.  We’re still watching a frontal system that should approach the area late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a small chance of showers/t-showers as it moves in. 

Meteorologist Jon Mason

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Thursday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:40 PM

A good Thursday to you! Our weather has been very nice this afternoon, with many of us warming into the middle 80s. Temperatures at night remain rather chilly, but lows will be warming as well. In-fact, temperatures will warm into the upper 40s by tomorrow morning. High pressure continues to give us dry and calm conditions, and weather changes over the next few days will be small.

A cold front over the Tennessee Valley now will gradually move into central Alabama today. This will basically bring a reinforcing shot of dry air. As a ridge builds in over the weekend, temperatures will moderate into the upper 80s. A few thermometers could reach 90 degrees through Monday. Skies will remain sunny and our airmass will remain dry. Lows at night will reach the lower 50s on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Humidity will not be a factor. As a trough builds in on Tuesday and Wednesday, rain chances will appear in the forecast. There will be limited moisture, so don’t expect much rain at all. As a cold front moves through the state, a few showers will be possible on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Cooler air arrives on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Skies will become partly cloudy. The tropics are fairly active, but there are no threats moving our way. Subtropical Storm Otto will be moving out to sea over the coming days.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV today at 5, 6, and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

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WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Subtropical Storm Otto – 9:30am Thursday Update

OTTO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A CURVED OUTER BAND PERSISTS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM…WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT…THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 50 KT…IN AGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 35 TO 50 KT.  IF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER CONTINUES…THEN OTTO WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  THE SYSTEM STILL HAS DAY OR TWO OF LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS AND WARM WATER TO INTENSIFY.  IN FACT…ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW OTTO BECOMING A HURRICANE…AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL GO ALONG WITH THAT SCENARIO.  HOWEVER…OTTO PROBABLY NEEDS TO SHED ITS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL RETAINING SOME SUBTROPICAL FEATURES…THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW OTTO BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR…SO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

THE STORM HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS ONLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  INITIALLY…OTTO IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A DISTANT RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY…WHICH SHOULD STEER OTTO MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES IN FASTER FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL CLUSTERED ON THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN…THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE SPEED DIFFERENCES…AS THE GFDL/HWRF ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW THE TRACK FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL MODELS…SHOWING A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION…AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  THE 96 AND 120 HR POSITIONS OF OTTO MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A TROUGH EAST OF THE AZORES…RATHER THAN MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. 

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott