West Alabama Weather for Thursday, October 7

 A gradual warming trend for West Alabama over the next few days.  This afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 80’s with full sunshine. Heading into the weekend, look for more sunshine and highs in the middle 80’s. The normal high in Tuscaloosa is 81 degrees for this time of year. We have a small rain chance in for Monday as a frontal system approaches.

Meteorologist Jon Mason

Advertisements

West Alabama Forecast for Wednesday Evening

 Pleasant weather continues in West Alabama. We will see clear skies  tonight and temperatures falling through the 60’s between 6pm and 10pm.  We will have more on rain chances early next week for West Alabama and a complete 7 day forecast tonight at 6pm and 10pm.

Meteorologist Jon Mason

Subtropical Storm Otto… 4pm Wednesday

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHEN INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO. CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE BROAD INNER CORE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM 1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 63 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT…WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS
VALUE IS CLOSE TO THE 48 KT CREDIBLE SFMR WINDS OBSERVED IN THE SAME AREA…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW…LOCATED PREVIOUSLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT…HAS MOVED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW SITUATED ABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT OTTO IS STILL A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE…BUT THAT IT IS ALSO GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OTTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHERE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER…A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY NUDGE OTTO ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BY 36 HOURS. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS…OTTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE AZORES ISLANDS BY 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTTO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C…AND THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR OTTO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS…AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY 96 HOURS…OTTO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE STRONGER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE WEAKER GFDL/HWRF MODELS.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Wednesday Morning Forecast Discussion… No Rain In Sight… 10am Update

Good Wednesday morning to you! Our forecast continues to include cooler weather today, as temperatures stay below average. After a start of 40 degrees, we’ll climb into the middle 70s this afternoon with full sunshine. A warm-up begins tomorrow, as we will return into the 80s. It will still feel great with low humidity and cool nights. There is a very dry airmass in place, so temperatures will make a big swing between the overnight lows and afternoon highs. This pattern will continue through the weekend.

High pressure continues over the south, which will give us lots of sun and calm conditions for the remainder of the week. Highs will gradually warm into the middle 80s by Friday, Saturday and Sunday. A shortwave trough moves through on Monday and Tuesday, allowing for a weak cold front to swing through. All we’ll notice is a change in wind direction early next week. A few extra clouds will move in ahead of the front on Monday and Tuesday, but rainfall will be very limited. In-fact, there’s only a 10% chance of a shower or two. If you see any rain at all, it will not help out with the drought. A stronger cold front moves in on Wednesday, and highs will drop back into the upper 70s.

There are no signs of rain over the next 16 days, as we will continue on the back side of an eastern US trough. This is not a favorable setup for rain, as there is sinking air in this section of the trough. This means our skies will remain mostly sunny for a while. A reinforcing shot of dry air moves in from time to time, so that will keep the Gulf of Mexico closed off. If we can’t get tropical moisture to return, rain chances will remain very low.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV today at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

Click here for FACEBOOK Updates

Click here for TWITTER Updates

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

TD # 17 Forms. Soon to become Otto.. Wednesday 9:50am Update

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS…SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CLOSER TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER…VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. AS A RESULT…THE INITIAL POSITION IS LOCATED AT THE MEAN CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS TROPICAL T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB…AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.1/31 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. EARLIER AMSU TEMPERATURE DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT A WEAK WARM CORE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN 600-400 MB…SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WAS NOT FULLY NOT FULLY TROPICAL. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER…THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT AND THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RETAIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE AROUND 18Z…WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/8 BASED ON MICROWAVE POSITIONS AND USING THE AFOREMENTIONED MEAN FIX POSITION DATA. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE WEAKNESS…AND A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALSO STRENGTHEN THE FRONT SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AFTER 36 HOURS…AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION…AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL…TVCN.

GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN ABOUT 30 NMI OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER…THIS TROPICAL TRANSITION COULD COMPLICATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST SINCE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION PROCESSES USUALLY OCCUR ON MUCH SHORTER TIME SCALES THAN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM SSTS OF GREATER THAN 28C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF ALL OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HOWEVER…IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS…WHICH IS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY IF THE SYSTEM TAKES ON A MORE CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott