WVUA Forecast

Scattered shower and thundershower possibilites continue for West Alabama this Monday. We are waiting on the system that delivered the weekend rainfall to pull out of the area. Behind this system we should see dry air return this week.

Afternoon highs will reach the lower to middle 90s by Tuesday, and continue through the upcoming weekend. Rain chances will diminish starting Tuesday as well.

The tropics continue to be active with Hurricane Danielle and Hurricane Earl, both churning in the Atlantic. Earl is taking more of a southerly direction, but should stay off the Eastern seaboard as the week progresses.

Jon Mason
WVUA Meteorologist

Earl is a Hurricane – Sunday, 12 PM

EARL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A DEVELOPING CDO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF
64 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING.  THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORTED THE EARLIER UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS.

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY…AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SHIPS…LGEM…AND GFDL MODELS SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS…PREDICTING THATEARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER… THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL
AND THE LOWER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT.  EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES….WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN  A NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT…BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

PERSONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT SINCE HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott