Saturday Afternoon Weather Update – 5 PM

A good Saturday to you! There are some changes to the forecast for the rest of the weekend, as data has dramatically changed overnight. An area of low pressure is moving inland over Louisiana this afternoon, and it spreading lots of tropical moisture in from the southeast. Numerous showers and storms exist over southern Alabama and Mississippi. As the plum of tropical moisture increases in central Alabama, we’ll see a big-time increase in showers. Showers and storms will be in the forecast at anytime overnight tonight and tomorrow. Sunday’s forecast will feature the wettest day in a long time. Showers and storms will become numerous, with a rain chance at 90%. As skies become cloudy, and rain settles in, temperatures will stay in the 70s much of the day, with a peak somewhere in the lower 80s. It depends on how much sun you see tomorrow as to how warm our temperatures get. As of now, it’s looking like sun will not be seen much tomorrow.

This looks like a setup where a batch of light to moderate rain settles over all of central Alabama for the majority of the day. The typical scattered storms that we often see this time of the year will not be the case tomorrow, as this could be a long duration rain event. Rainfall totals over southwest Alabama could exceed 1 inch.

High pressure builds in from the east on Monday and Tuesday, and we’ll notice a reduction in rainfall coverage. Rain chances are down to 30% on Monday and 20% on Tuesday. Temperatures gradually warm back into the lower 90s, as sunshine becomes more abundant. High pressure basically takes over for the remainder of next week, and conditions become dry. Highs will top out in the lower 90s, with a low around 70 each night.

The tropics remain very active, as we have several storms in the Atlantic. We’ll be watching Earl close. Tropical storm Earl looks to have the best chance of impacting the US coastline. Be sure to scroll down below to see the latest on the tropics. Also, join me on WVUA-TV tonight at 10 for more on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Watching Tropical Storm Earl… Saturday – 5 PM

THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS CIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE…AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY
OF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A SIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL…AND MAKES EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

EARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON…THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott