Friday Afternoon Weather Update – 3:30 PM

Good Friday afternoon! Football Friday is here, and our weather is looking rather hot for the local high school football games. Temperatures this afternoon are mainly in the lower 90s, but some storms south of Highway 80 is cooling off areas such as Linden and Demopolis. A few storms this evening to the south of Tuscaloosa will diminish after sunset, so many of the stadiums should be ok by game-time. Expect temperatures to fall into the upper 80s at 7 PM and middle 70s at 10 PM.  

A disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico is bringing numerous showers and storms to south Alabama. Data has come into better agreement that this system will lift inland and bring a better chance of rain to parts of central Alabama. The best bet of rain will happen along and south of Highway 80 on Saturday and Sunday, but I can’t rule out a few storms as far north as Fayette both days.

High pressure at the surface and aloft builds in from the northeast on Monday, which will dry us out a bit. An isolated storm is possible on Monday and Tuesday, but rain chances go below 20% for the rest of the week. We can expect a mixture of clouds and sun each day, with a high between 89 and 92. Lows continue in the upper 60s through the remainder of the forecast period.

The tropics remain very active, as Tropical Storm Earl and powerful Hurricane Danielle propagate across the Atlantic. Danielle appears to be no threat to the US Mainland but Earl should be watched closely. Join me on WVUA-TV tonight at 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great Friday!

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Advertisements

Friday Morning Weather Update – 9:30 AM

Good Friday morning to you! Our Local weather continues rather nice today, with seasonable temperatures and low humidity. Moisture levels have increased just a bit, so it isn’t going to be as comfortable as the past few days. However, we don’t feel a tropical airmass in here either. An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft to our northeast will keep our weather settled in central Alabama. A disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico will bring showers to southwest Alabama on Saturday and Sunday, but rain chances appear low at this point in central Alabama.

Conditions over the weekend will feature a few extra clouds and showers, but again, the best bet for that will be over southwest Alabama. Highs over the weekend will average in the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s. Skies at night will remain mostly clear. The tropics have really began to heat up, which is typical for this time of the year. We are nearing the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Scroll down for the latest on Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl. Danielle appears to be no threat to us, but Earl may be different. While data is showing a northward turn with Earl in about 7 days, we can’t buy into that just yet. The ridge/trough pattern could be much different than forecasted that far out. We need to watch this system close over the coming days, as there is a good bet that Earl will become a powerful hurricane. It is atleast 7 to 8 days away from the US mainland, so we have time. Still, lets keep an eye on it. Another tropical low is about to form into a tropical depression later today or tonight. This system just came of the African coast, so it’s also a long way out there.

I’ll have a fresh discussion on here by 4 O’clock this afternoon. Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV News at 5, 6 and 10. Have a great day!

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Tropical Storm Earl – Friday 9 AM

EARL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION THAT REFORMED AROUND 00 UTC HAS PERSISTED IN BROAD CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB…RESPECTIVELY…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION…AND INDEED ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 DAYS AND SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.

EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A CONSISTENT WESTWARD PATH AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS
STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. EARL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE…WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY HURRICANE DANIELLE…IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Hurricane Danielle – Friday – 9 AM

DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT…WITH INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  BASED ON THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CURRENT ADT VALUES AROUND 6.0…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT.  LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SHOW A PEAK AT 120 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AROUND 36 HOURS…AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING BY DAYS 3 AND 4.  BY DAY 5…BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AFTER 72 HOURS…DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5…THE NEW FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott