Wednesday Forecast Discussion Update 3:05 PM

Good Afternoon! The clouds have certainly plagued our area today and this has wreaked havoc on our temperature forecast. It has been much colder and if we see any sunshine today, we will be lucky to reach the upper 50s. I still can’t rule out a few cloud breaks during the afternoon, which would allow for a temperature spike. Tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy and cold, although I’m expecting low temperatures to be slightly above freezing.

Our forecast hasn’t changed much regarding Thanksgiving and the big day for holiday shopping. Clouds will steadily increase tomorrow, with showers possible tomorrow night. A milder south flow will allow our highs to recover into the 60s tomorrow and tomorrow night we will have lows near 50 degrees. I’m expecting a good period of rain on Friday and any thunder should be confined to southern sections of Alabama.

Things get more complicated as we enter the weekend. The rain maker on Friday will be a southern tracking storm and this feature should clear the area by early Saturday; however, an early morning shower will be possible on Saturday. The new 18Z data suggests another disturbance will take the southern route, bringing a period of rain during the day Saturday. As the Iron Bowl game kicks off in Tuscaloosa, temperatures should be in the cool 50s. I would certainly plan on carrying the rain gear for the game, as a period of light to moderate rain will be possible. Saturday night a trough in the northern branch of the jet stream will swing into the southeast. This feature may trigger a few showers, with falling temperatures.

The upper trough will open the gate to colder air, with highs only reaching the middle to upper 40s on Sunday. Some of the data even suggests a few snow flurries over the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. For now, I’m forecasting a few showers for our area on Sunday, with a cold and blustery north wind. If newer data supports the right combination of cold air and moisture, I would not be hesitant to mention a flake or two in locations like Tuscaloosa. Clouds will linger Sunday night, with a low near 35 degrees. A light shower or sprinkles will be possible Sunday night and early Monday as the arriving cold air squeezes out any lingering moisture. We will remain quite cloudy and cold through much of the day on Monday, with some clearing by Monday night. This should allow for a widespread freeze Monday night, with lows in the 20s. The upper air trough will become less amplified by Tuesday allowing for a slight warm-up by the middle portion of next week. The new model data should start rolling in soon and we will continue to tweak the forecast as needed. Be sure to join us at four, five, six, and ten for more details!

Wes Wyatt
WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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