Fay Update – 11:34 p.m.

This is the final update from the National Hurricane Center on what is now Tropical Depression Fay:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

…FAY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS…

AT 10 PM CDT…0300 UTC…ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

NHC Final Forecast for Fay - Click Image for Larger View

NHC Final Forecast for Fay - Click Image for Larger View

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES…100 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 30 MILES… 45 KM…NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT FAY COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…FAY WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY…AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OR EASTERN LOUISIANA ON MONDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 999 MB…29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Radar Loop - Click Image for Larger View

Radar Loop - Click Image for Larger View

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA…THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA…AND EASTERN LOUISIANA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…WESTERN GEORGIA…AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT SUNDAY.

Robert Stevenson
WVUA Weather

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River Flood Warning – Posted 11:10 p.m.

Home Team Interactive Radar - Click Image for Larger Image

Home Team Interactive Radar - Click Image for Larger Image

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
1051 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM AL HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA…

SUCARNOOCHEE CREEK AT LIVINGSTON AFFECTING SUMTER COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FALLEN OVER OVER THE TOMBIGBEE/WARRIOR BASIN… AND A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SUCARNOOCHEE CREEK AT LIVINGSTON.

SAFETY MESSAGE… DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND…DON’T DROWN.
ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY SUNDAY MORNING… OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

  • FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SUCARNOOCHEE CREEK AT LIVINGSTON.
  • FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELED.
  • AT 7:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.9 FEET.
  • MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
  • FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
  • FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 23.2 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
  • IMPACT…AT 22.0 FEET…FLOODING OF SOME YARDS IN SOUTHEAST LIVINGSTON OCCURS.

Robert Stevenson
WVUA Weather

Tornado Watch Until 3 a.m. – Posted 7:42 p.m.

Tornado Watch - Click Image for Larger View

Tornado Watch - Click Image for Larger View

There is a tornado watch for portions of West, Central and Eastern Alabama until 3 a.m.

It includes Autauga, Barbour, Bullock, Chambers, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Montgomery, Perry, Pike, Russell and Tallapoosa Counties.

Robert Stevenson
WVUA Weather

Saturday Evening Update – 7:11 p.m.

Radar Loop - Click Image for Larger View

Radar Loop - Click Image for Larger View

Fay is bringing us plenty of rainfall across much of the area. Home Team Interactive Radar, with Rain Vision, shows more than an inch, to more than two inches of rain, has fallen in areas from Livingston, to Greensboro, to Demoplis, to Marion.

Here are some rainfall totals, since midnight, from around the state as of 7 p.m. from National Weather Service data:

Anniston: 0.17″
Birmingham: 0.38″
Northport: 0.75″ (Weather Watcher Barry Durand, as of 3 p.m.)
Tuscaloosa: 0.75″
Auburn: 2.13″
Montgomery: 2.20″
Dothan: 3.51″

    As we go through the rest of tonight, tomorrow and even into Monday, the rain will continue, heavy at times, especially south of U.S. 82 west of Tuscaloosa, and Interstate 20/59 to the east of Tuscaloosa.

    NOAAs Enhanced Infrared Satellite Image of Fay - Click Image for Larger View

    NOAA's Enhanced Infrared Satellite Image of Fay - Click Image for Larger View

    Some areas could be measuring rainfall totals up to 11 inches before this system moves completely out of the area.

    We will also see gusty winds, as high as 30 or 35 miles per hour, through Sunday, and into early Monday.

    There is also a threat for some isolated tornadoes in thunderstorms in some of the feeder bands wrapping around the east side of the storm. I think those, if they develop, will be kept mostly far south, in Marengo and Sumter Counties.

    As with and tropical system, the threat can shift depending on the track of the storm. Make sure you have access to severe weather alerts through the next several days.

    NHC Forecast for Fay - Click Image for Larger View

    NHC Forecast for Fay - Click Image for Larger View

    Rain and thunderstorms will continue in the area into the middle of next week. the track for Fay, and it’s remnants, will keep it close enough to bring us enhanced chances for showers and storms into Wednesday, or even Thursday.

    I’ll have more on the forecast on WVUA News at 10:00 tonight.

    Robert Stevenson
    WVUA Weather

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    Fay Moves In to Area

    Radar Loop - CLick Image for Larger View

    Radar Loop - CLick Image for Larger View

    Rainfall from Tropical Storm Fay has spread over the entire area. Expect rainfall rates to intensify at times. We can also expect some gusty winds, up to 30 miles per hour at time, as the storm continues to move to the west along the Gulf coast. The wind advisory and flash flood watch are still in effect for the area. Details on those are below.

    You can look at radar imagery by clicking on the radar loop to the left, or by clicking the link to our Home Team Interactive Radar to the right of this posting under “links.”

    The bottom line on things as of right now:

    Fay, and it’s remnants, are expected to bring rain and storms well into next week. The latest forecast for the storm has it going west to just northwest of the New Orleans area… then it turns northeastward and head back up through central Mississippi. This track has the storm in the area until Thursday as a depression. This will mean enhanced chances for showers and storms for several days.

    NHC Fay Forecast

    NHC Fay Forecast - Click Image for Larger View

    Some areas, south of an Aliceville to Tuscaloosa to Centreville line, will see rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches by Monday morning. Some areas could see even more, especially further south of Tuscaloosa.

    Winds will be blustery with some gusts up to 30 or 35 miles per hour.

    I’ll have another update later this afternoon, and a full update on the forecast, tonight, on WVUA News at 10:00.

    Robert Stevenson
    WVUA Weather