Sunday Afternoon Weather Discussion; Updated at 1:50 p.m.

A good Sunday to you! The weather is very hot today, as temperatures are flirting with 100 degrees in many locations. As of this update, the temperature at the Tuscaloosa Airport is at 99 degrees, with a heat index value of 102. Be sure to take the extra precautions if you are going to be outdoors today to avoid heat exhaustion or heat stroke. With temperatures like this, we need to try limiting our outdoor activities to the early morning and late evening hours. We will deal with one more very hot day before temperatures begin a downward trend. Highs for Monday may reach 100 degrees, so get ready for more sizzling weather. Things begin to change around here by Tuesday and Wednesday, as an approaching cold front will bring more clouds and rain around here. With a 40% chance for storms on Wednesday and Thursday, you can expect the clouds and rain to keep temperatures in the lower 90s. Still, lower 90s is very hot, but it is better than seeing the triple digits! The cold front will actually stall out over central Alabama, which will serve as a focus mechanism for bringing us more rainfall. Also, our data is hinting at a plume of tropical moisture moving in here by the midweek time. According to the latest data, I may have to bump the rain chances up a bit for Wednesday and Thursday.

We are watching our new tropical storm in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Dolly is moving northwest at 15 MPH, and is posing a threat to the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 24 to 48 hours. There are tropical storm warnings in place for that area for today and tomorrow. As the system enters the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, it has the potential to rapidly develop. We will be keeping a close eye on this storm. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center takes the storm towards Brownsville, TX, but with a strong trough digging into the eastern half of the nation by Tuesday and Wednesday, a turn more northward is possible. It will be interesting to see how our eastern trough interacts with Dolly over the next few days, so be sure to stay with us for the latest track and strength of the storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Bertha is forecasted to impact Iceland over the next couple of days, with tropical storm force winds expected! Bertha has shattered the record for the most consecutive days for a single named storm in the month of July in the Atlantic Ocean. That storm is about to turn extra tropical and won’t bother our weather at all.

A little closer to home, Tropical Storm Christobal is battering the Carolinas right now, with tropical storm force winds impacting the outer banks. Fortunately, that system is moving out to sea and won’t impact our weather as it tracks northeast. Be sure to join us tonight at 10 p.m. for the latest on your weather forecast and our tropical trouble. Take care and have a great Sunday!

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Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

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Tropical Storm Dolly forms! Updated at 10:48 a.m.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

…FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA…

AT 1145 AM EDT…1545 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1145 AM EDT…1545Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES…435 KM…EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES…365
KM…SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR.  A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THIS
TRACK…THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.  AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1145 AM EDT POSITION…18.4 N…84.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

WVUA TV’s Richard Scott