Saturday Afternoon Weather Discussion/ Severe Weather Update

I hope the start to your weekend is going great! The good news is that the weather will be warm this weekend, but with the warm weather in place, we also have the risk for some strong storms. First, we have some rain moving into the area this afternoon. In-fact, rain is already falling over Marengo County as of noon today; the rain will slowly fill in from southwest to northeast, but there are no worries of severe weather this evening. Most rain that falls this afternoon will be light to moderate. As a warm front moves in tonight from the south, moisture and humidity will be on the rise. We will actually reach our overnight low before midnight tonight, and our temperatures will be on the rise after that. Once the warm front moves in tonight, you will notice a gusty south wind developing. Also, there will be a change to more humid weather. We can’t rule out a stray storm at any time after midnight, but the main action doesn’t arrive until the morning hours. We will watch an approaching squall line overnight tonight work across Arkansas and Mississippi; this line will work in here during the early morning hours. Not much has changed in our thinking from yesterday on the intensity and timing of this event. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow. We feel that an intense squall line will work its way into west Alabama during the early morning hours, slowly progressing through the area during the morning. The line will move east of I-65 by the early afternoon. The main threat is from large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The main determining factor on severe weather is how far north the moisture and instability will make it. The best instability will be over the southern half of the state, and that is where the greatest threat for tornadoes exists. There will be a lot of wind shear across the area, so any storm that develops has the potential to rotate, so make sure you stay with us throughout the night and into tomorrow. We will have updates as necessary on our weather blog. If any warnings develop, we will break into programming and fill you in on the latest.

Once the cold front pushes through the state around noon, the severe weather threat diminishes and we get back into a cold weather pattern. Highs on Monday will only be in the middle 40s, with the chance of early morning snow flurries. The sun will make a return by Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, we will begin a very quick recovery; highs will be in the middle 50s, with lots of sunshine. We will be back into the middle 60s on Wednesday, with partly cloudy skies around, but moisture and clouds will roll into town on Thursday. There is a 30% chance for rain and storms on Thursday and a 40% chance for showers on Friday. Highs will be very warm by the weekend, with highs expected to be in the low to middle 70s. With temperatures in the 70s this weekend, it will feel like spring has arrived a little early, but we will have more shots of colder weather ahead. Be sure to join us tonight at 10 p.m. for the latest on our chance for severe weather and much more. Have a great day!

Richard Scott
WVUA TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

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Saturday Morning Severe Weather Update

Things are beginning to come together for a major severe weather outbreak over Texas and Louisiana this afternoon, where there is now a moderate risk for severe weather. There is a chance for dangerous super cell storms with long track tornadoes there. As all of this activity develops into a line and progresses eastward across Mississippi during the overnight hours, the line will begin to weaken; this is because of the loss of daytime heating. The squall line will work into west Alabama early Sunday morning, likely around daybreak and push out of the area shortly after noon. Because this is during the time of minimum daytime heating, the severe weather threat for us is lower, but there is still a risk for damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The main limiting factor will be the amount of instability available north of I 20/59. There will be a good amount of instability in place for our southern counties, so we will have to keep a close eye on any activity there. The environment will be favorable for tornadoes to spin up, so if any storms develop ahead of the main line, they will have the potential to quickly rotate. Make sure you keep it right here to WVUA as we continue to monitor this severe weather risk. Stay tuned for more weather updates, plus a full weather discussion this afternoon.

Richard Scott
WVUA TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor