Thursday Afternoon Forecast Discussion

We started off the day with lows near 22-degrees. Thankfully, the sunshine allowed for a nice recovery by the afternoon. Tonight we could hit the freezing mark as the sky will remain mostly clear. If you have a nice Valentine Dinner planned, prepare for a chilly evening. The high clouds will really start pouring in tomorrow and we will have a partly to mostly cloudy sky by the afternoon hours. I still think a stray shower will be possible as early as tomorrow afternoon or evening, especially south of Tuscaloosa. Highs tomorrow will top the 60-degree mark.

A trough in the jet stream is becoming so amplified over the southwestern U.S. as to where it’s cutting off from the mean flow. This will make for a slower arrival and now Saturday doesn’t look like a complete washout. We will have lots of clouds and the chance for a stray shower or thunderstorms during the day. Temperatures will recover into the middle 60s, with a gusty south breeze. As the storm system migrates our way on Sunday the chance for thunderstorms will increase. One reason is that this upper air storm will create lots of wind shear. Highs on Sunday will be topping the 65-degree mark and this will aid in fueling thunderstorms, some of which may grow severe.

The storms should depart Sunday night, with a big drop in temperatures. Early Monday a few sprinkles or snow flurries will be possible as cold air moves in. After that point, we will see gradual clearing. Today’s data is advertising another storm system for the end of next week. Impacts from this feature will begin around next Thursday.

(Image Source: NCEP Forecast Surface Map for Saturday)

Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist WVUA

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