Monday Afternoon Forecast Discussion

HPC QPFThe weather will be changing quickly tonight as a disturbance to our southwest spreads lots of clouds into West Alabama. A few sprinkles can’t be ruled out late tonight as moisture increases over the area. We’ve had a high fire danger today due to the warm/dry air and breezy conditions. Highs reached the low 70s today and it has felt great!

Tonight we will drop into the 40s, but temperatures are expected to be on the rise by tomorrow morning as rain approaches. The low pressure disturbance to our south will phase up with another system to the north and this will bring a good chance of rain and thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.

A few showers will be possible before lunchtime tomorrow, but rain will be more likely tomorrow night. Highs tomorrow will be nearing the 70-degree mark, especially in areas to the south. There is a slight risk for severe weather in far southwestern Alabama. A front will drop into the area tomorrow night and temperatures will be falling as the rain continues. We will wake up to morning lows near 39-degrees on Wednesday, with the rain tapering off. The sky will become partly sunny by the afternoon on Wednesday, with mostly sunny conditions expected for Thursday.

A stronger mid latitude system will spread in over the weekend and that will bring us another good chance of rain by Saturday. This will be a much deeper storm system, meaning that it will be more vertically stacked in the atmosphere. As colder air from the upper portions of the system gets pulled down by the rain, there could be a few wet snowflakes mixed in Saturday night. I think it’s safe to say that the latest data is advertising a cold rain. We will have much more on the long range in the days ahead.

(Top Image: HPC-Precip. Estimates/Bottom-NCAR Forecast Surface Map)

Wes Wyatt
WVUA Chief Meteorologist