Friday Afternoon Forecast Discussion

Good afternoon! The thunderstorm development is underway and we’ve had some decent downpours near the city of Tuscaloosa. One thundershower developed near Taylorville and lingered for quite a while. The latest radar round-up indicates a developing shower between Berry and Samantha. Also, there is some development near Lawley and Maplesville. The isolated thunderstorm threat will last well into the evening hours tonight.

Our forecast outlook on rain over the next few days is still looking good. Tomorrow we will have some decent periods of sunshine, with more scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some of the storms may grow strong, with large hail and gusty winds. Sunday I still think there will be a window for an extended period of rain as copious amounts of moisture will be in place and a surface boundary will be nearby. All of these components will lead to a good coverage of thunderstorms. If you recall, we talked about the unsettled weather in the western Gulf. Low pressure has developed near Houston and some of the moisture with this feature will help fuel rain over far southern Mississippi and Alabama.

I’m going to continue to mention a good chance of rain on Monday as the front will be slowly working through the area. Tuesday the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will lower as the boundary over the area weakens and gradually dissipates. We will have hot and humid conditions for the start of August, with some spots nearing the 95-degree mark next Wednesday.

There will be just enough instability to spark afternoon thunderstorms through next week. The data has been painting an impressive tropical system over the eastern Atlantic in the 9 to 10 day time frame. The truth is, the data has been trying to develop tropical systems in the long range, on and off, for the past two months. However, with the peak of hurricane season approaching we can’t ignore everything we see and we will need to cautiously watch the tropics.

Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist WVUA-TV

Summer In The South

I’ve been in this business for nearly ten years now and I can safely say that summer tends to be one of the most challenging times of the year for building forecast. You’re probably thinking, what can be so hard about saying scattered thunderstorms everyday, with a high of 90-degrees. Each day I allot time to building my own forecast and believe me our goal is to have the most accurate forecast out there. The forecast you see on WVUA-TV each and every night at five, six, and ten was put together by me. It’s all drawn out on paper before we incorporate it into our graphics system. I’ve seen so called, forecasters in this business simply take the National Weather Service Forecast and use that in their broadcasts. However, for those that do build forecasts, it is tough during the summer to get a good handle on specific communities that will deal with rain.

The reason is that in the hot summer months smaller scale features play a big role in where thunderstorms or showers materialize. As we deal with the summer heat, parcels of unstable air scattered about serve as regions for storm growth. The broader scale models we use as guidance simply don’t have the resolution to be able to choose specific neighborhoods, which may experience rain. That is why you may hear us mention, spotty thunderstorms in the western or eastern half of the state. There are however, smaller scale models that can allow us to get a better depiction of where rain may occur. This type of guidance has proven to be beneficial, but it still lacks the type of detail I would like to see.

As far as the temperature is concerned, it is tough to reach a projected high where the rain occurs. If a storm pops up over the airport, depending on the time of day, we may not reach the projected high. However, other parts of the area may reach the projected high temperature. Therefore, the scattered storms can lead to busted high temperature forecasts.

I hope this helps to better explain some of the aspects of summer weather forecasting in Alabama. As you can see, forecasting can be quite challenging in the summer. However, for a weather fan like me it’s quite exciting to see all of the data and build forecasts.
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Quick Tropics Update: According to the National Hurricane Center a weak area of low pressure has developed near the upper Texas Coast. The system is expected to move inland over the next couple of days and that will keep the feature from rapidly developing. This is the same system we’ve been talking about over the past coupe of days. It looks like Texas will get the bulk of the rain from this system. We’ll continue to keep a close eye out for any suspicious tropical activity.

Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist WVUA-TV