SKYWARN Storm Spotter Training..

The Southeastern states deal with two distinct tornado seasons each year, one during the spring months of March, April, and May, and the other in the fall and early winter months of November and December. Although tornadoes can occur anytime anywhere, these two seasons feature the highest frequency of tornadoes. The National Weather Service conducts SKYWARN Storm Spotter training classes during these months to help them improve warning accuracy with trained eyes in the field that report back to them.

This Tuesday, November 17, the National Weather Service in Birmingham is coming to the University of Alabama campus to offer weather safety and storm spotter classes. The weather safety class will take place from 11:15 AM until Noon Tuesday morning in the Ferguson Center Theater. The storm spotter class will take place from 1:30 until 3:30 PM also in the Ferguson Center Theater. Anyone is welcome to attend these events, including faculty, staff, and students of the university; however, seating is first come first serve.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-Weather

Forecast Discussion Update 11/13- 4:00 PM

The weekend has finally arrived and we will kick it off on a cold note with some cold temperatures out there tonight. Lows will be in the upper 30s in many locations. Other than some high clouds from time to time, we will enjoy plenty of sunshine tomorrow and on Sunday. Highs will also be very nice, with readings in the middle 70s. By Monday a stronger southerly flow will develop, with clouds increasing.

The weather setup over the region won’t be quite as calm next week. A front will drop into the state on Tuesday. The models are having a tough time with regard to rain chances with this system. I’m thinking a few showers will be possible on Tuesday, with a mostly cloudy sky. Some drier air should wrap in on Wednesday, with the rain threat shifting east during the day. A strong upper level disturbance will be rotating to our northwest during the mid-week time frame. Energy rotating around this particular system may spread more rain into the state late Thursday and on Friday. It’s still tough to be very specific on the exact timing of rain; however, for now I’m forecasting a showers returning late Thursday and continuing into next Friday. Have a great weekend!

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Forecast Discussion Update 11/12 4:20 PM

The National Weather Service will be in town next week. On Tuesday, November 17th, the NWS will conduct a severe weather safety presentation at 11:15 a.m. inside the Ferguson Theater on the UA campus. Also, on Tuesday at 1:30 p.m., the NWS will conduct a Storm Spotter Training Course at the UA Ferguson Center Theater. The second primary severe weather season is approaching and this would be a great time to learn more about severe weather in Alabama.

Our weather will be far from severe over the coming days. We will have a clear sky tonight, with lows in the cold 30s. We will stay above the critical freezing point; however, there may be some patchy frost or fog late tonight. Look for another bright day tomorrow and on Saturday. After cool starts, each day will bring wonderful afternoon temperatures. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s. Also, if you are traveling to Starkville for the Alabama game Saturday night, plan on a mostly clear sky. Temperatures will be falling into the chilly 50s.

Clouds will start increasing late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. Also, daytime temperatures will remain on the warm side for both Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 70s. A shower can’t be ruled out late Monday as a cold front approaches. This front will push through, with a few showers possible on Tuesday. Some of the long range data is hinting that this front may stall, with the chance for showers continuing into next Wednesday and Thursday. Be sure to tune in tonight for more details!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Latest River Stages

Forecast Discussion Update 11/11 4:46 PM

Let me begin by saying thanks to all of the men and women that are serving and have served our great nation. A big happy Veterans Day to you! It has been quite windy out there today and temperatures have remained in the cool 60s. The sky has cleared out nicely and tonight the sky will remain crystal clear. The winds will lessen tonight, with lows in the cold 40s. As the remnant low pressure area associated with Ida continues east into the Atlantic, the pressure gradient over the region will relax. This will mean lighter winds tomorrow, although it is going to remain on the cool side. Highs tomorrow will only reach the mid to upper 60s. Thankfully a sunny sky will return tomorrow, with bright weather again on Friday.

High pressure will keep us dry over the weekend, with temperatures rising into the 70s during the day. A milder south flow will return by Sunday as a strong disturbance rotates into the state of Oklahoma. This system will swing a cold front into Alabama late on Monday and on Tuesday. Look for increasing clouds Monday with some showers Monday night. There may be a thunderstorm as this system pushes through Alabama on Tuesday. Dry weather will follow for next Wednesday and Thursday. Be sure to join us tonight on WVUA for more forecast details!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Forecast Discussion Update 11/10 4:10 PM

The remnants of Ida are pulling away from the area and rain is starting to taper off from West to east. This system brought us plenty of rain, with most spots measuring around three inches. The temperatures will remain on the chilly side through tonight, with a gusty north wind. The north breeze will return tomorrow; however, we will enjoy a return to bright weather. Early morning clouds will give way to sunshine, with highs in the 60s. The weather forecast for the rest of the week looks great, especially when consider it is November. We will have a sunny sky for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with highs near 70 degrees. It is going to be on the cold side at night, with lows in the 40s. Sunday will be a mostly sunny day, with clouds increasing late Sunday night. Our next chance of rain will be sparked by a cold front during the Monday/Tuesday time frame next week. Have a great evening!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Ida Update – 6:30 a.m.

Radar Loop - Click for Larger View

Tropical Storm Ida has made landfall on Dauphin Island at about 5:40 this morning. It’s now heading northeast across Mobile Bay .

Here in West Alabama we have a lot of rain and wind out there… there is a flood watch and wind advisory for the entire area.

TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
600 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

…IDA OVER MOBILE BAY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Click for Larger View - NHC Forecast

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL AROUND 540 AM CST…1140 UTC…ON DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA…WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH…75 KM/HR.

AT 600 AM CST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES…40 KM…SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE MAINLAND ALABAMA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.  AFTER LANDFALL…IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED…AND IDA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB…29.50 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

…SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…30.3N 88.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB

Robert Stevenson
WVUA Weather

Special Tropical Storm Ida Update 9:50 PM

Dry air is wrapping into Ida and much of the rain has shifted to the north and northeast of the center. Infrared satellite imagery at the time of this update revealed an exposed center to the tropical storm. Flood watches are up for our area through tonight and wind advisories are in place. Look for winds to increase, with a steady rain through the early morning hours. I’m expecting Ida to make a landfall around midnight at or near Mobile Bay. Be sure to join us tonight at 10:00 for a live update!

Forecast Discussion Update 7:00 PM

Tropical Storm Ida continues to churn towards the Alabama Gulf Coast. I’m expecting Ida to make a landfall near Dauphin Island tonight and then make a track northeast as a trough approaches. This is a rare event for Alabama as most November tropical cyclones typically occur to our southeast. As Ida lifts into Alabama tonight we will have breezy conditions along with a soaking rain. The system will make its track across south Alabama tomorrow and rain will continue. The winds will average between 15 and 25 mph, with some rogue gusts around 35 mph. Because of the recent heavy rain, there may be a need for flood advisories locally. This flood threat will be greatest to our south where flood watches are currently in place. At the time of this update flash flood watches were in place for Clarke, Wilcox, and Choctaw counties. Tropical storm wind warnings were also in place for these areas. The windy conditions will continue into tomorrow night, with the rain threat ending. We will have clearing on Wednesday, with bright weather to close out the week. Beyond tomorrow, highs will be near 70 degrees, with lows in the 40s. Be sure to join us tonight for more details!

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Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Ida Update – 6:00 p.m.

Click for Larger View - Hazardous Weather Outlook from B'ham NWS

Ida continues to move towards the Alabama Gulf of Mexico coast. Landfall will be near Dauphin Island as early as midnight Tuesday. Rainfall has already spread over southern Alabama and is over much of West Alabama as well.

You can expect some heavy rain and gusty winds through Tuesday and into early Wednesday. Gusts could be as high as 35 to 45 miles per hour. We could see rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches.

Here are the latest stats on Ida:

6:00 PM CST Mon Nov 9
Location: 28.9°N 88.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: N at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb

Here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

…IDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD…SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

Click for Larger View - NHC Forecast for Ida

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 600 PM CST…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES…60 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 125 MILES…200 KM…SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR. A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK… THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL…IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS IDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL…AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM FROM THE CENTER.

WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AN OBSERVING SITE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH A GUST TO 74 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB…29.32 INCHES.

RAINS FROM IDA ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL…AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

…SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…28.9N 88.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 900 PM CST.

Robert Stevenson
WVUA Weather