The Northeast Mega-Storm... Detailed Outlook - Thursday Update 2:45pm

Good Thursday afternoon to you! This discussion will cover the risk of a super-storm across the east and northeast and Alabama’s impacts… Above is 3 of our most relaible forecast models. You can see the lable on the bottom of each image, showing which model this is. To the far left is the GEM or Canadian Model. This model suggest the core of Sandy will move into the New York City area, with significant impacts over the entire mid-Atlantic states through New England. In the middle is the 12z European Model. This suggest landfall of the center near Chesapeake Bay. To the right is the 12z GFS. It shows landfall of the center right at New York City…

Here’s the deal… Sandy is a Hurricane in the Bahamas now. Sandy will track north and get caught up in a very deep upper air trough that becomes negatively tilted. While Sandy will no longer be a true hurricane at landfall, it will be one of the most powerful sub-tropical systems I’ve ever seen. A hurricane typically has damaging winds very near the core of the storm, but as it becomes extra tropical, winds spread out; the storm becomes very large. The models above suggest pressure values at the center of the storm at landfall will be in the 930mb to 945mb range. That’s similar to a major hurricane. Also, you through in a strong high pressure over the central US, then you increase or tightening the pressure gradient.

The reason we have wind is due to a pressure gradient. The atmosphere wants to have equal pressure everywhere, so when you have a high pressure and low pressure close by, air will rush generally towards the low pressure from the high pressure. The stronger the pressure gradient, the stronger your winds will become. This storm will have a very large and very strong pressure gradient, which means it’s going to affect a huge part of the northeast and mid-Atlantic states.

Each model above is a possible landfall point for the center, but understand that it doesn’t matter where the storm moves onshore, it will produce tremendous tree and power-line damage, very large waves and storm surge, flooding rain over a huge area. People will be without power for over a week in some places. If you have friends or family in the northeast of mid-Atlantic, please warn them of this approaching disaster. People must have a food supply and water supply for atleast a week in some areas. Beach erosion will be extreme in many areas and coastal flooding will become significant. If this data is correct, the northeast will see a storm worse than the Perfect Storm of 1991. Just to give you an idea of the pressure field in this storm compared to other major storms in the past… The Perfect Storm had pressure around 972mb and the blizzard of 1993 or Storm of the Century had pressure values around 964mb. Forecast models are predicting pressure values below 940mb with this storm, so it goes to show you this could be very dangerous and become a threat to life and property. Expect major travel delays in areas impacted.

Check out this map above… This is the GFS snowfall output. The latest run of the GFS suggest a major snow storm for the  Appalachian Mountains, with nearly 1 foot of snow in places. If this storm sets up just right, blizzard conditions will become a real possibility for parts of the central Appalachian Mountains. All I can say is what a storm… This will likely go down in the books and one we’ll be talking about for years to come. If model data is correct, and I think it is, our friends in the northeast and mid-Atlantic states are about to deal with a true weather disaster.

Conditions will start going downhill in that area over the weekend and early next week. The worst of the weather will occur around Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Alabama’s impacts will be very minor in respect to the northeast. Gusty winds will develop on Saturday and Sunday, with winds gusting to 30 locally. Much colder air will spill into Alabama on Saturday and Sunday, with highs struggling to reach the lower 60s. Lows will approach the middle 30s by Sunday night and Monday night. The Alabama Homecoming game will be a cold and windy game, with temperatures in the 50s at kickoff and 40s at the end of the game. Alabama’s weather will stay dry…

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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