Tropical Storm Sandy and Tropical Depression # 19 forms Today... Monday Update 4:50pm

Here is Tropical Storm Sandy! The storm is in the southern Caribbean at this hour and is about to start moving north towards Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas over the next few days. There’s a chance this system will become a hurricane over the Bahamas later this week. While Sandy will not impact our local weather, it has a chance to make impacts along the eastern coast of the US. Sandy will become a large storm, so there’s a good chance it will help to pull down chilly weather into the southeast late in the weekend and early next week. Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center:

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR 35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE…SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR…AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS…FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE…HOWEVER…AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE STORM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE FIELD…BUT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  HOWEVER…LITTLE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOON.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST.  THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

Above is Tropical Depression # 19… This system will become a tropical storm tonight, but there is not threat to the US Coast. Below is an update from the National Hurricane Center:

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY…AND BOTH TAFB AND SAB PROVIDED 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0.  ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WITH 30-KT WINDS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…SO SOME STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY.  AFTER 48 HOURS… THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT…AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS.  IN ADDITION…THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A FRONTAL LOW…AND A WEAK ONE AT THAT…BY 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE… THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK IN INTENSITY OCCURRING IN 48 HOURS WITH STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  INTERESTINGLY…THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 EVEN IN THE FACE OF MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS.  GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL FEED OFF OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY…THE NHC FORECAST LEANS LOWER THAN MOST OF THE HURRICANE MODELS.  DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5 WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW…AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/6 KT.  THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BE PICKED UP BY FASTER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE…AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS MODEL AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

 

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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