Storms Moving into West AL… Severe Threat is Low… 12am Update Thursday Morning
October 18, 2012 Leave a comment
Here’s the very latest look at our setup, as of 12am Thursday morning. Storms are weakening in east Mississippi at this hour, as they outrun the instability. The higher instability values are over southwest Mississippi, while there’s little to no instability over central and west Alabama. There’s still time for a sliver of unstable air to reach areas southwest of Tuscaloosa, but the chance is decreasing with time. It sure looks like most of the area will deal with a rainy night, with lightning and gusty winds. The risk of severe weather is looking lower and much more isolated… We’ll be here watching it just incase a storm gets out of hand.
The line of rain and storms will reach the Jasper, Tuscaloosa, Greensboro, Eutaw, Livingston and Demopolis area sometime between 1am and 2am. The leading edge of the line will then move into our east, central and south Alabama counties between 2am and 4am. This mess should be out of central and east Alabama well before sunrise tomorrow morning.
While you see the times on the map above, remember, that’s the time the storms will first reach you. Rain and storms will continue for a good 1 to 2 hours after the leading edge reaches your area. Look for periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning. I would say the best chance of an isolated tornado will occur south and west of Tuscaloosa. The threat is low, but we’ll be here watching it. There could be a severe thunderstorm warning or two along the way, but it sure looks like the threat is decreasing for our central and west Alabama counties…
While there’s lots of shear and lift, instability is needed in a setup like this. Since instability is forecasted to remain very low now, the risk of severe weather is looking very low.
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