Weather Update 9:30pm Wednesday…Severe Threat Is Low…
October 17, 2012 Leave a comment
We’re watching a line of severe storms move across Mississippi at this 9 O’clock hour. These storms should reach our northwest counties such as Marion, Lamar, Pickens, Fayette and Winston around midnight tonight. At this point, the line will be strong enough to produce isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado. After midnight, the line will continue to weaken as it moves southeast. It should reach the I-20/59 corridor between 1 and 2am, then continue southeast into the Montgomery area after 3 or 4am.
Instability is a major source of energy for thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. Since there is literally no instability over Alabama right now, there is no worries with severe weather at this 9pm hour. Models bring a tiny sliver of instability into western Alabama ahead of the line late tonight. This is where our marginal severe weather threat would come from. Wind shear will be high across our area, but the lacking instability will keep this from becoming a big event across Alabama. Any risk of severe weather will remain west of I-65, with the best chance of severe weather over central Mississippi.
We may get a watch issued across west Alabama as a precaution, but the chance of tornadoes and wind damage is very low. That being said, it’s still important that you have a source of weather information to wake you up incase a warning is issued for your area. While I think the chance is small, it only takes one tornado at your house to cause issues…
The line should be much weaker after 2am, with only a line of general rain and thunderstorms. I’ll be here along with our WVUA Weather team through the night, or until the threat is over. If west Alabama goes under a tornado warning, you can flip on the TV and find us there for the latest…
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist