Fairly Nice Week Ahead – Sunday 6:55 p.m.
October 14, 2012 Leave a comment
The line of thunderstorms that crossed Mississippi and into northwest Central Alabama today weakened considerably as it neared the Interstate 65 corridor. Currently, a small area of generally moderate rain showers continues to push northeastward across the area. A few scattered showers have developed near the Gulf Coast but do not expect this activity to push far enough north to affect the area. Further back to our west, the cold front stretches from near Chicago to St. Louis to Little Rock to Shreveport. With the aid of weak mid level short wave, the front should pick up speed and push eastward tonight. Ahead of the front we could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. Given how dry the airmass is across the area, the reason for lack of activity today, we do not expect widespread rainfall or a severe threat as the front moves through tonight.
Showers could linger across far southeastern Central Alabama Monday morning as the front clears the area. Otherwise, dry and cooler air will filter into the area as high pressure builds across the Southeast. High and low temps will be near normal for the first half of the work week. We will see a weak return flow on Wednesday ahead of the next storm system. A trough will dive across the northern Rockies and Central Plains Wednesday, becoming a closed low over the Midwest. A large amount of uncertainty exists as to how far south the trough and closed low will set up through the end of the week. However, models are fairly consistent in quickly pushing a cold front through Central Alabama late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Many things could change 5 days out, but an airmass across the area does not moderate ahead of this system, leaving relatively dry and stable conditions in place. Given the currently forecasted jet structures, shear will be available for thunderstorms along the front, but with little to no instabilty. The airmass behind this system looks to be a little cooler than today’s, with temps slightly below normal for the end of the week.