Tropical Depression # 16 Has Formed Near the Bahamas – Thursday Update 1pm
October 11, 2012 Leave a comment
Tropical Depression # 16 has formed this morning in the Atlantic, near the Bahamas. This system will move west southwest over the next 24 hours, but wind shear will kill the system over the weekend. There is no threat to our local weather or the US coastline… Here’s a discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A BUILDING LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE INCREASES THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT…LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT…180/01. AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS THROUGH THAT TIME.
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