Lots of Events Happening…Tropics…Severe Weather… Thursday Afternoon Forecast Update 5pm
October 11, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Thursday afternoon to you! The weather locally has been great today, with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Before we get to our local forecast, I wanted to start with the tropics. Tropical Depression # 16 has become Tropical Storm Patty this afternoon. The storm has winds of 40 mph, so it’s a weak system. Patty is located just east of the Bahamas and is tracking north very slowly. Wind shear will increase over the next 24 hours, so no impacts are expected along the east coast. Patty will die out quickly over the weekend as the environment becomes less and less favorable for development. There’s another system near the Lesser Antilles, but it will turn north and move out to sea.
Our local weather is looking great over the next few days, as temperatures continue to modify leading into the weekend. A trough across the east will continue to pull out to the northeast, and some ridging will move into our area on Friday and Saturday. Ridging will allow a nice moderating trend, with highs in the lower 80s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. As low level moisture increases, we can expect humidity to become noticeable on Saturday and Sunday. Higher moisture levels will also keep temperatures up at night. Look for low in the lower 50s tonight, but upper 50s to lower 60s are likely Friday night and Saturday night.
A shortwave trough will pass north of Alabama on Sunday and Monday. The trough will be just strong enough to send a weak cold front into Alabama sometime Sunday night or Monday morning. A few scattered showers and storms are possible after 4pm on Sunday. The chance of storms will continue through lunch on Monday, but the afternoon hours should become rain free and cloud free. Since this isn’t a large scale trough, we don’t expect any cold air to move in on Monday or Tuesday. We’ll notice highs cool into the upper 70s and lows in the middle to upper 50s Monday night and Tuesday night. Rain totals should be pretty light across west and central Alabama. Models indicate the chance much of the area will pick up less than 1/2 and inch.
The forecast is looking nice and dry on Tuesday, but another fast moving storm system will approach Wednesday night and on Thursday. This system will bring the risk of scattered storms and some cooler weather.
If you’re making a trip to Columbia for the Alabama vs Missouri game, we could have some big issues. While our local weather will be fine on Saturday, big problems are possible for the Alabama football game. Keep in mind the forecast could change between now and Saturday, but a vigorous storm system will bring the risk of severe storms during the game and through the rest of the evening in Columbia, Missouri. The main threat will occur after the game ends, but I expect the risk of severe storms during game time, so make sure you have a source of severe weather information. The threat include damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, hail and isolated tornadoes. According to the Storm Prediction Center, this could be a high end severe weather outbreak. Again, stay alert if you’re going to the game. This threat will NOT impact Alabama’s weather…
The Moundville Native American Festival is happening now and will continue through Saturday. There area no weather issues for that event. If you’re making plans to the festival, look for mild and dry weather through Saturday.
The 41st Annual Shrimp Festival is happening in Gulf Shores now and will continue through Sunday. No issues are expected there as well, with nice and sunny conditions. Highs will continue to reach the lower 80s for highs with lows in the upper 60s along the Gulf Coast.
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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvuatv.com
