Severe Threat Looking Lower… Stray, Small Tornado Possible Through Mid Morning… – Monday Update 3:20am Update
October 1, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Morning! As of 3:20am Monday morning, we’re dealing with numerous tropical showers across our state. A deep layer of tropical moisture extends from the Gulf Coast, northward into Tennessee. While we’ve got lots of wind shear and plenty of moisture, we’re lacking instability. Much like our last storm system a couple weeks back, this one is coming through at the right time. The dynamics are there, but you really need instability to get strong updrafts to develop and wind shear to get the strong updrafts to rotate. Without one of these key factors, then severe weather just can’t get organized.
This is an incredible storm system for this time of the year. The low is under 1000mb over central Mississippi and is tracking northeast. The warm front extends well northeast of the low into the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama. This is nearly a perfect setup for an active severe weather event, but we just don’t have the instability needed to kick things off.
The low will track northeast through the day, and the cold front will reach west Alabama sometime around 6am, then move east of I-65 around 9 or 10am. Once the cold front passes your area, the wind will switch around to the west, then northwest later in the day. We’ll continue to deal with these tropical showers through the mid-morning hours. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a slight risk of severe storms for all of west and central Alabama, but it sure looks like instability will be lacking in western Alabama for an organized severe weather threat. That being said, we’ll continue to watch for the chance of a small spin-up tornado through the mid morning hours. If instability can increase in east Alabama, there could be the risk of isolated tornadoes through the early afternoon hours. I expect the risk to be out of western Alabama by mid-morning. If anything changes, we’ll have updates on here. Overall, the threat is looking less organized but still needs to be watched.
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