Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 7:25 p.m.
September 23, 2012 Leave a comment
Looking at the weather pattern across the US, an upper level trough is currently set up over the eastern US, with ridging over the west. At the surface, the center of the high pressure is situated over the northern plains. This high pressure will continue to push into Central Alabama over the next several hours, with surface winds out of the north. Northerly winds will continue to allow cooler and dryer air to filter in and lows could dip down into the low 40s in some locations.
The upper level ridge will slowly make its way over the Southeast over the next couple of days, before flattening into a more zonal pattern by midweek. With the ridge in place and a continuous flow of dry air aloft, things should stay fairly dry for the beginning of the work week. Temperatures will really begin to moderate as the pattern becomes more zonal and winds begin to turn more towards the south. By Wednesday, moisture will begin to filter back into our southern areas. Warm air advection will allow temperatures to begin to climb back into the upper 80s with some areas across the south possibly reaching the lower 90s.
Come Thursday, a weak shortwave trough will slowly work its way into the mid Mississippi Valley. Beyond this time frame, models really begin to diverge on their solutions. The GFS brings a cold front into the area by Friday evening with precip pushing into the area. Meanwhile, the Euro pushes the cold front through a little slower with the bulk of the precip occurring late Saturday and into Sunday. With so much inconsistency between the models we can’t say for sure when or if we will see any rain chances.